Doomben: Brisbane Racing Club @ Doomben Saturday, 04 November 2017
Rail Position: Out 7m Entire Circuit
Track Condition: Good 4
Weather: Fine
Penetrometer: 5.28
Best Bets:
Playing some value runners each way
R9 N2 BROTHERLY SECRET
R7 N4 EMPHASIS
Race 1
1 HOPES ETERNAL is undefeated in 2 career starts, and put up a big performance to win last time. The concern here is he will likely give 3 EF TROOP a massive start at the top of the straight. 3 EF TROOP was an 8.4L trial winner here, and has a big wrap on it from the powerful T Gollan stable. There has been a sprinkling of early money for the 8 CATASTROPHIC, it will need to be above average to beating the previously mentioned runners.
Numbers: 3 – 1 – 2 – 4
Bet: I think 3 EF TROOP starts shorter than the current $2.70 Small win bet
Race 2
11 LOOSE GOOSE has been ok in 2 runs from a spell, and from the inside gate gets to settle first 4. He represents some value at $10, and is worth something each way. Hardest to beat is 3 VALFIERNO who can get the run of the race from gate 2. He was held up early in the straight last start, and was only beaten on the bob of head. If he can get clear air here, he will be the horse to beat, and is worth a saving win bet on him. 1 JETSONIC has a terrible racing pattern because he misses away, could win of he begins with them, but that is unlikely.
Numbers: 11 – 3 – 1 – 5
Bet: Each Way 11 LOOSE GOOSE
Saver Win Bet: 3 VALFIERNO
Race 3
Expecting 7 War Baby with Tegan on to roll to the top here, giving 3 MONTEUX the job of carting the field up to the leader. I think this leaves 5 CAPETOWN HUSSEY as the runner coming from just behind the speed and fighting out the finish. 5 CAPETOWN HUSSEY was strong through the line 2 back winning over 1800m, so I’m not worried about the 2000m here, looks the horse to beat.
Numbers: 5 – 2 – 3 – 8
Bet: WIN 5 CAPETOWN HUSSEY
Race 4
The ever-consistent 7 PLUCKY GIRL looks a safe EW play from the nice gate. Matt McGillivray can either lead or let the speed come across, either way 7 PLUCKY GIRL maps perfectly. 9 LUNA FIORE can roll forward, they can control the speed and allow PLUCK GIRL to scoot away on straightening and fend off the challengers.
Numbers: 7 – 9 – 3 – 10
Bet: 1 x2 Each Way 7 PLUCKY GIRL
Race 5
Looks to be genuine speed with recent Sunshine Coast track record breaker 7 TARZAN 11 SWEET REPEAT 9 SIR DONALD 4 POWERFUL SAGA all burning early. This gives 1 PERFECT DARE & 6 TIYATROLANI the right runs to figure late. Both horses are Group performers, with little between them. I have a slight leaning to 1 PERFECT DARE, I think the wider gate will suit and he can get a uninterrupted run at the leaders from the 500m. 6 TIYATROLANI settles in behind, and may need that slice of luck to get in the clear.
Numbers: 1 – 6 – 7 – 2
Bet: WIN 1 PERFECT DARE
Race 6
Looks to be a suitable race for 10 AQUAVITE on the strength of his second 2 starts ago behind Freddie Fox Trot. Obviously the worry is gate 15 here, but the horse is flying and looks hard to beat. 17 TAKARAKA if he gains a start is the danger, and 2 D’HARMONY is a hope also.
Numbers: 10 – 17 – 2
Bet: WIN 10 AQUAVITE
Race 7
I was hoping for a better draw for 4 EMPHASIS, who dashed quickly to hit the front before being ran down late by 2 URBAN KNIGHT last start. He was listed placed over the mile last preparation and strips fitter at the mile third up here. I’ve mapped him 6th one off the fence, anticipating he goes forward and slots in behind the speed. If he can position up there, he will be mighty hard to beat here. 1 TORGERSEN enjoyed a nice run in transit when knocking off odds favorite Dreams Aplenty last start. He rises 5 kg from that effort, and has a task ahead to repeat the dose here, but is capable. 2 URBAN KNIGHT also rises in weight, but is in good and gets a nice run in transit, and a chance.
Numbers: 4 – 1 – 2 – 12
Bet: Each Way 4 EMPHASIS
Race 8
3 MISS EXFACTOR the likely leader here, having her first go beyond 1200m, stepping up to 1350m. Obviously some query at the trip, but she should lead on an easy enough tempo to give her every chance to run the trip. I originally had 3 MISS EXFACTOR on top, but 2 HOSTWIN MERAKI interests me, as I see him sitting outside the leader here, and I think he is a winning hope. At the end of his 2yo campaign he was only 4L off the smart D’Argento, and was a winner over 1300m the start before that. The blinkers go back on here, and I’m having something EW on him at the price. The run on horses, 4 ADORADANCER just ahead of 1 COLOSIMO, who gives away a big start and a lot of weight, to fill the minors.
Numbers: 2 – 3 – 4 – 1
Bet: Each Way 2 HOSTWIN MERAKI
Race 9
12 CHAMLU has come up a short priced favorite, jumping from a Class 1 race on a Friday night Sunshine Coast card, to a class 6 Saturday race. He has comeback from an injury enforced lay off, after running a great 5.5L 9th in the 2016 GOLDEN ROSE at group 1 level. His first up win was visually impressive, albeit in low grade. He has a touch of class, but not sure I can come into him at the price second up off a long spell. He can certainly win, but not with me on him today. 2 BROTHERLY SECRET has drawn to get the perfect run here, and is a great each way chance. Forgive his last start, when he was trapped wide and to burnt early to get upside the leader. Go back on his 2 previous runs, and that form is more than good enough to be a leading hope here.
Numbers: 2 – 12 – 11 – 15
Bet: Each Way 2 BROTHERLY SECRET