FLEMINGTON Derby Day November 4
It is going to be a cool Derby Day with the possibility of drizzle around but this track with some natural irrigation (14.6mm) plus added water (23mm) this week should be in perfect condition and what a race card it will host. Naturally rail true, no harm in being on it and on speed. Let’s go.
BEST BET: Race 1 #7 LEVENDI
BEST VALUE: Race 7 #6 SULLY
Race 1: 7-1-10-15
Going to start Cup week of with a bang and the best bet of the carnival in LEVENDI. Outstanding with little luck in the Caulfield Guineas and run comparable to Royal Symphony who of course was unlucky in the Cox Plate behind Winx! Melham back on, draws to get perfect run, just a touch of luck and we are away. Win. Think SNITZEPEG and LORD SUNDOWNER , the Gothic Stakes quinella pair from Caulfield will give strong sight on pace with RELLSON, fourth behind Snitzepeg previous Flemington win suited at 1600m.
SUGGESTED: Get your bank on LEVENDI.
Race 2: 1-10-5-7
Impossible to ignore the strong finish at the end of the 1600m of BRING ME ROSES in the Manifold. A repeat of that has her the clear horse to beat and can only sense right now in first campaign there is still improvement. TEODORA is also in first campaign and only three runs in, just missed the boat behind Pinot (form ties in) in the Ethereal (first go 2000m). HIYAAM and RIMRAAM finished in front of it there of better urns. Respecting LUVALUVA, only a Goulburn 1300m Maiden winner but unlucky behind good one in Kaonic last time at 1600m Sydney.
SUGGESTED: Stick with BRING ME ROSES.
Race 3: 5-1-4-7
NIETA gets the blinkers now after a little disappointing effort in FUHYRK race Caulfield. If they help and he finds the Redzel chasing Sydney form he can clearly atone. SHEIDEL won this race last year and needs to be let rip and run from inside gate but will have the now blinkered DESERT LASHES for company. LAKE COMO is 3/3 fresh and is a winner up the Flemington straight (1200m). LYUBA certainly in this, already proven up straight.
SUGGESTED: Need to stay with NIETA
Race 4: 2-10-7-4
HARLEM has the best form here and can consolidate a tenuous spot in Tuesday’s Cup after yet another tinkering of winkers for blinkers as worn in Naturalism Stakes win. Bart Cummings run was excellent and that is the right form line. KELLSTORM beat it home in the Cummings and its Geelong Cup run was a pass mark. CISMONTANE will be suited rolling along in front here. ALOFT had major excuses for major flop at Caulfield in strong race.
SUGGESTED: Very keen HARLEM.
Race 5: 6-1-18-5
Absolutely brilliant contest loaded with winning possibilities. Got to make a call and that is JUKEBOX to turn it around on FORMALITY from Blue Sapphire Caulfield with a gear change and building fitness. Have to respect the record of TRAPEZE ARTIST who gunned them down in the Golden Rose., VIRIDINE arrives unbeaten but stable yet to travel Sydney form to Melbourne with conviction so wary. But I am wary of most of these. There are just too many other capable of winning to mention. Have to believe what you see with EPTIMUM for one.
SUGGESTED: JUKEBOX in a tough one.
Race 6: 2-16-14-5
Love the draw and toughness of GLOBAL GLAMOUR, proven G1 horse at 1600m, resumed in terrific fashion in Tristarc and is going to look the winner up the straight here but for me- more importantly – at the winning post. SHOALS from same stable as Alinghi (who couldn’t win this as a 3YO – yes I know I AM A STAR won this as a 3YO last year as the only of her age group to do so) but this filly has blinkers off after running into the emerging Aloisa in the Thousand Guineas. NOW OR LATER had no luck in Tristarc after impressive 1400m win here. SILENT SEDITION was forced to do it tough there.
SUGGESTED: GLOBAL GLAMOUR each-way.
Race 7: 6-5-7-1
Subtle gear changes in SULLY enough to sway me towards one of Trent Busuttin/Natalie Young trio of Derby chances. That is respecting ACE HIGH and TANGLED who finished in front of it in the Spring Champion (Tangled since running well in the on pace dominated Caulfield Classic) – just thought Sully shaped as the more dour staying type to see this out of MAIN STAGE – forgiving Caulfield Classic run for surging Flemington UCI win prior and more pressure assured here to suit. Been with WEATHER WITH YOU all though and tough win Geelong Classic which has proven useful guide here of late.
SUGGESTED: Like the way SULLY is presenting here.
Race 8: 1-2-5-6
Both the Weir runners here have peaked into winning form. Not an easy task for TOSEN STARDOM with 58kg and Toorak tempo was brutal and to his advantage but he got the job done. LUCKY HUSSLER likewise got a speed map to suit last week but also was dominant in getting back to best form. TOM MELBOURNE should get better run than in on-speed Toorak and if you didn’t read his name when writing this would have to say he brings the right form and luck at this handicap, is a real winning chance. EGG TART looks dangerous on the minimum. SHILLELAGH goes in if misses Myer as expected.
SUGGESTED: Backing both Weir runners TOSEN STARDOM and LUCKY HUSSLER.
Race 9: 1-11-7-8
ILLUSTRIOUS LAD was terrific resuming and gets chance to repeat last year’s win in this race with 3.5kg more but with a season of excellent performances to earn it. RICH CHARM was career best second-up nailing KEEN ARRAY. MISSROCK is much better suited back to 1200m with Bowman. BONS AWAY was beaten up the straight by Keen Array so can tie some form in there but was too keen, previous win over Brave Smash reads better and hopefully that experience from last time will help. RAVI right up in betting, no luck at Caulfield, don’t think 1 gate end of day 1 is a plus though.
QUADDIE
2-5-14-16
1-2-5-6-7
1-2-5-6-9
1-7-8-11
$200 for 50%