FLEMINGTON Melbourne Cup day 2017
Welcome to the first Tuesday morning in November and in Melbourne it’s cool and drizzly but track is in perfect order, might be a few showers (light) this morning after 6mm of irrigation as put on
BEST BET: Race 6 #2 OUR CROWN WITNESS
BEST VALUE: Race 7 #3 HUMIDOR
Race 1: 2-1-11-10
With much spruiked debutant LAKE DISTRICT GIRL coming out (stable still has ROOBENA), these first starters will want to be right up to the mark and markets to nail the raced pair which sees me leaning QAFILA (drawing out) ahead of SETSUNA (drawing in) but terrific at the Valley. Respecting FARTHING WOOD (Weir/Allen) of the others making first appearance. ROCK THE WORLD should fly and is over the odds.
SUGGESTED: kick off with QAFILA.
Race 2: 9-3-8-5
SPANNER HEAD looked plain 2nd up but that was Caulfield, seems to race better Flemington ready for the 1700m 3rd run in. INVINCIBELLA looks the obvious off every chance Tesio run in fast time, Bowman taking over. MILES OF KRISHAN is on the rise and ready. TAHANEE gets an advantageous run.
SUGGESTED: Good gamble SPANNER HEAD.
Race 3: 3-6-13-9
Back off ambitious G1, G 2, G3 runs (with some merit) is LAND OF PLENTY to suited BM90 and gets run from gate to smother and pounce. NEW UNIVERSE runs favourite and was ok resuming as a beaten favourite. Profiles on the up here. MANUEL needs luck for Purton from gate. MILWAUKEE is starting to put it together.
SUGGESTED: Going LAND OF PLENTY for plenty of value.
Race 4: 3-6-15-16
If you think AMELIE’S STAR is a chance in the Cup –and she is, then GRANDUKEOFTUSCANY after a frustrating non-winning campaign for punters, may finally be ready to repay us with this. Will lead from this gate. SIN TO WIN was well placed to win Caulfield, this harder. SHERLOCK HOLMES broke through Friday night MV when tough on speed, needs to keep improving but starting to get it right. UBIN THUNDERSTRUCK stays on well.
SUGGESTED: Happy to back both GRANDUKEOFTUSCANY and YOGI here.
Race 5: 1-9-8-6
Like PROPERTY back to own age group here off sound G2 Sprint return. Doubt straight an issue. PARET was terrific winning maiden (of depth) then inexperienced (Beau Geste race) Rosehill. Positive it comes straight here. NATURE STRIP draws out and will be competitive. SAM’S IMAGE keeps improving.
SUGGESTED: Class with PROPERTY
Race 6: 2-7-3-6
No brainer here for OUR CROWN WITNESS especially now draws inside and will control this. Ran time and dominant at Caulfield. WARRANTY beat a good one in Sydney last time working forward. COUNTERPLAY is drawn to get the stalk. LUQYAA is looking for 1400m now.
SUGGESTED: Got to like OUR CROWN WITNESS
Race 7: 3-4-5-23
It’s a brilliant and punter challenging Cup with so much to dissect locally and internationally and factoring in the first time runners (who haven’t won since Vintage Crop). All that noted very keen to go with HUMIDOR, who worried Winx into a third Cox Plate and that surely is good enough form if runs 3200m and carries the weight. Fair query but Weir knows what’s going on here and is top pick. TIBERIAN has to beat the firs-up hoodoo – Heartbreak City almost did last year and carries same colours. Form around Breeders Cup Classic winner Talismanic enhanced at weekend. MARMELO was the obvious off Caulfield Cup and the Kergolay form rarely fails in the Cup. AMELIE’S STAR was poorly ridden in the Caulfield Cup and in with 51kg is huge value – having accounted for Almandin in the Bart Cummings. Best value is VENTURA STORM ignoring the Caulfield Cup glitch (with excuses).
SUGGESTED: Go with that you like. I like HUMIDOR.
Race 8: 13-4-10-12
Recent record at Flemington is appealing for NOZOMI at the odds. Cranbourne Cup run was a pass mark in different tempo to this. Good gamble here for Purton. MAURUS hasn’t won for a while but profiles well 5th run in and each has improved. LIFE LESS ORDINARY had problems when beaten favourite in Sydney and overall form good enough to run favourite here. PURE PRIDE is a real Flemington horse, Seymour was an aberration.
SUGGESTED: Like NOZOMI at the price.
Race 9: 15-12-3-16
Surprisingly not much Flemington straight form to play with. But keen that I THOUGHT SO is the way to go and like the wide draw. Hasn’t won but has been right there 3 Sydney runs for this. SO YOU TOO now has the RICH CHARM form and hoping low draw not a hindrance. FAATINAH is a straight track winner and looks suited. PRINCESS OF QUEENS is honest and also drawn out.
SUGGESTED: Tough but happy with I THOUGHT SO.
Race 10: 6-1-3-5
Even but leaning MISS GUNPOWDER from good draw looking at 1400m now and ready to do so. All the form ties in from Cool Passion race and tough effort at the Valley. FUHRYK gets soft draw for first crack 1400m and well placed. COOL PASSION is holding form, WHITE MOSS has great form profile but other chances for sure.
SUGGESTED: Going MISS GUNPOWDER each-way.
QUADDIE:
2-3-4-5-7-10-20-21-23
4-12-13
3-12-15
1-3-5-6
$162 for 50%