ROSEHILL

 

SATURDAY 25 NOVEMBER

 

TRACK:                        GOOD 3                       RAIL:    TRUE

 

 

BEST BET:        Race 8             No.5     IN TIMES OF WAR

NEXT BET:       Race 1             No.4     PLAGUE STONE

 

 

Race 1

4 – 6 – 7 – 5

 

PLAGUE STONE was very good in his trial win at Canterbury when clearing out to win running away by a big margin with another sizeable margin back to third. The part I liked was when jockey Avdulla squeezed he found another gear and went away. Wild Planet did a good job in his trial at Hawkesbury when leading from the inside and never being let go. Secret Lady was gallant on debut when second here behind Dynamited and will again race on-pace and give plenty of cheek. Take note Lee Magorrian who rides won’t claim any of his 3kg as his riding weight is 54kg.

 

 

 

Race 2

4 – 1 – 5 – 3

 

I’m going to stick with POETIC CHARMER who was able to break his maiden in emphatic fashion last start with the addition of blinkers albeit against weaker opposition than what he meets here. He will race handy and likely tag the leader Maid Marilyn and hopefully get past her. Maid Marilyn will give a sight and as she showed last start when winning at Canterbury she cruises at a solid speed. Star Sensation and Sparky Lad are players with sparky needing to overcome a tricky barrier while Star Sensation will have to carry 60.5kg which is 5kg more than last start.

 

 

 

Race 3

1 – 6 – 5 – 8

 

Even with the scratching of Rib Eye who probably would have led there is still plenty of on-pace runners with Zahspeed likely to find the front while Paragon, Mornington and Hogmanay to settle not far away. If Hogmanay has luck early he looks the one to beat coming off an unlucky third at Flemington on Oaks day behind Mr Garcia who is the short-priced favourite for the Ballarat cup. Gambler’s Blues will stalk the speed and is likely to look the winner at some stage. Intueri is racing in terrific form and must be respected but this race has more depth than what he raced last time. Dagny is a player but is a real worry about if she can run out a strong 1800m while her stablemate Mornington must be given thought off one very good effort here in Australia.

 

 

 

Race 4

7 – 11 – 4 – 8

 

ZONK looks as though she will find the front pretty quickly and I think be hard to run down. She was caught in the shadows of the post last start but there doesn’t look much pressure in the run meaning hopefully when she kicks she will have plenty in the tank. Picardy Rose looks the value to me with her set to carry only 53kg and I thought she did a good job first up when closing behind Slow Burn in a race dominated by the on-pacers. Anatola comes through the same race and having drawn very wide may well press forward and if she does that without working hard she will be there at the finish.

 

 

 

Race 5

3 – 1 – 2 – 10

 

GITAN will roll forward and make his own luck and really only needs to repeat his latest run behind Istria and he will be hard to toss here. He had a quick 10 week break and the two runs since will have helped his fitness so he should be sherry ripe here. Realing was outstanding first up here three weeks ago when charging from the back behind O’lordy and will again be in the mix. The step up in trip is too his liking it’s just a matter of how quick they go up front. Schedule is alike a pet I’ve backed him that many times and he will always be a player in these type of races.

 

 

 

Race 6

6 – 2 – 5 – 7

 

Tricky race as I have nothing between ZUMBELINA, MORTON’S FORK and JUST DREAMING. Just Dreaming is low flying and will again roll forward and likely find the front and be hard to get past. Zumbelina is drawn awkwardly but if she gets luck early and finds a spot not far off the speed with cover and she will be strong late. Morton’s Fork is first up for six months with two trials under his belt and is now under the care of James Cummings. He has good first up credentials but he will be likely giving the other two a good start when they straighten for home.

 

 

 

Race 7

17 – 13 – 3 – 4

 

MISS DUBOIS is drawn the car park but still looks clear top pick going off her recent good form including a last start second here behind Intueri. She will carry no weight so I imagine McEvoy will have a look early hoping to be in the first half and if the lucks fall her way she’ll be hard to toss. Zamex was super here three weeks ago making up good ground behind Carzoff but like my top pick is drawn very wide and will need the luck to fall his way.

 

 

 

Race 8

5 – 6 – 9 – 2

 

I’m not going mad (I already have) no seriously I think IN TIMES OF WAR will get the job here especially back to 1100m and I think a far easier race then last start. The speed should be solid enough and from a good gate Tye Angland should find a stalking role and when he hits the go button she will go bang. The short-priced favourite Bon Amis has won four from four and must be respected but it’s been against average types and is silly odds here at present. Test The World is the blow out as she has plenty of quality and is first up so watch for market support.

 

 

 

Race 9

6 – 1 – 4 – 2

 

ISTRIA returned this preparation is outstanding style and from a perfect gate looks the one to beat again here. With Dreamforce rolling forward and probably King Darci and He’s A Given pressing forward Istria should get a lovely economical run. Only little concern is her best efforts have been with a little sting out of the ground and come 5:40pm the track is likely to be pretty firm. King Darci falls into a similar boat with his best performances are when he can get his toe in but he will get a perfect run from barrier one and be thereabouts. Dreamforce will likely lead and he loves it bone dry so will be in front for a long way.