SANDOWN HILLSIDE Saturday December 2.
Well who would have thought we’d race on a good 4 all Friday night at Moonee Valley despite the 100% chance of rain (well about 16mm) was forecast by the bureau. So with some trepidation we regroup for Sandown today which has come up a soft 7 on race morning but the word from the bureau is “you ain’t seen nothing yet” with up to 80mm forecast from mid-afternoon onwards. Perhaps that is why there are already 33 scratchings with connections fearing the worst.
BEST BET: Rain – and lots of it. JUNGLE EDGE (Race 7#1)
BEST VALUE: WAR LEGEND (Race 8 #8)
Race 1: 5-8-6-7
If this was a good track, LOGAN RIVER might be a good thing. It won’t be and this is just a difficult betting race given the ground. Anyway it’s shown best ability of the unraced. The only horse to have raced was favourite on debut – that’s CORONEL and did everything wrong. Obviously has ability. SANCTIMONIOUS looked professional and solid in trial win with blinkers on Monday (that was rated a soft 5). SEBERATE has jumped out well.
SUGGESTED: Nothing.
Race 2: 5-4-1-10
Happy to go with HOLY FREEZE who won its maiden on a heavy 8 at Hamilton on debut. BELLEGANO looks ok on wet ground. ECHO JET has improved with blinkers. At odds, WANTED DIVA has shown some ability on affected ground.
SUGGESTED: Keen on HOLY FREEZE.
Race 3: 1-3-6-4
Like MRS GARDENIA back to a BM 84 of a Group 3 placing but no exposure to seriously affected ground. (Might say FUDGED has 7kg on it from 3.75len defeat fresh-up Mornington but clearly one has progressed greatly). TOFFEE NOSE disappointed as favourite resuming at Bendigo but hit a soft 5 (albeit over 2000m) and beat Ruthven in the autumn. HEAVENLY DESCENT has handled a heavy with some ability in the past (2nd Geelong BM78)
SUGGESTED: Staying with Mrs Gardenia.
Race 4: 6-11-1-7
VINLAND and PROCEDURAL are the only to have seen heavy tracks, VINLAND good in strong Syd race with post-race issues and ran well enough in Guineas here a fortnight back. PROCEDURAL will be well over the odds. Too many queries elsewhere but have to respect STORM HARBOUR’s credentials. CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE won a good maiden last time and this breed normally gets through the ground.
SUGGESTED: Something VINLAND, save PROCEDURAL
Race 5: 16-18-13-14
Absolutely impossible race (even without the rain and the amount of scratchings). Liked the return and maiden win of URBAN ROYAL and track was a soft 6 so that might be some pointer. Over the odds will be JIVALA whose wet track runs have been ok and liked return at Cranbourne. SILENT GENERAL is starting to build into form. BLUNAKKA will give sight on speed but form on wet is bit mixed.
SUGGESTED: URBAN ROYALE will win other races (if not this due to ground).
Race 6: 8-2-1-11
SPRIGHTLY LASS has looked good, despite being green in early starts to her undefeated career. Saw a soft 5 on debut and couldn’t really tell if got away with it on ability only. A positive though that stable has left it in. Think CHIAVARI brings best soft track credentials. MISS WONDERLAND obviously has ability – no exposure to wet. FOR A SONG seems to get through ground and will race on pace which may be a help.
SUGGESTED: Can back SPRIGHTLY LASS and save on CHIAVARI.
Race 7: 1-2-4-3
Well here is one of the country’s best wet-trackers – JUNGLE EDGE, and showing how well he is going winning here a fortnight ago on a soft 5. All 12 wins have been on affected ground, but 5 wins from 11 starts on heavy. GUN CASE is also more than adequate on soft and despite them giving loads of weight to rivals (even after claims) they are best placed in this ground. They clear away from others headed by the honest ROCK’N’GOLD.
SUGGESTED: Back JUNGLE EDGE, save on quinella with GUN CASE.
Race 8: 8-9-3-14
WAR LEGEND was good (every chance) in the MR GARCIA race at Flemington on Oaks day. Of course that horse ran favourite in Ballarat Cup and was ok. But this horse is adept in heavy ground and can beat LONG TIME AGO who won well here a fortnight ago, racing against its normal on-pace pattern. Is a winner on a soft 6. NIGHT’S WATCH gets the weight relief here from Flemington Country Cup and has won on a soft 6 and certainly the one to beat.
SUGGESTED: WAR LEGEND at odds.
Race 9: 6-1-17-13
DATA POINT is hardly a punter’s pal but only one of two wins was on a heavy. NIKITAS doesn’t have a winning habit either but is pretty reliable, ran well Kyneton resuming in strong form race and has handled heavy in the past. EUREKA STREET will be strong late, 1300m is short of best but likes this sort of expected ground. MOONLOVER is having a good campaign and has indicated heavy ability iin the past also.
SUGGESTED: Can’t back DATA POINT at the odds (can win) but will have something NIKITAS.
QUADDIE:
2-6-8
1-2
3-8-9
1-9-13-17
$72 for 100%