CAULFIELD July 1
Rail goes out 7m (from last meeting true) – not a normal move at Caulfield which tends to use 3m increments so a little interesting. Was (now) typical Melbourne winter good 4 at time of analysis with a cold weekend forecast. Not overplaying a pre-mediated pattern determining outcomes but no surprise to see middle track run-on winners later in day.
BEST: Race 4 #1 CLIPPER $4.40 bet now
VALUE: Race 8 #1 SMACKDOWN $12 bet now
Race 1: 7-3-4-11
All the early money here for 3 LONE EAGLE – comes through the dead heat win race of 1 ROYAL PHOENIX but reckon 7 EVIL CRY is better value of that race trio. Royal Phoenix may have peaked on run but shared it, sure Lone Eagle was unlucky but $3.6 to $2.9 is over found because Evil Cry is measureable alongside it. 2 NISTAAN gets winkers resuming then you have two other form lines – 4 PREVAILING WINDS with blinkers after being beaten at Swan Hill by 6 RIVER JEWEL and then 11 OLYMPIC LAD unlucky and now with blinkers off strong mid-week race. So deep start.
Suggested: 7 Evil Cry each-way at the odds $9.50 bet now
Race 2: 2-4-10-1
Looks like 2 KIWIA can turn it around (2.5kg says so too) on 4 ROYAL ORDER who gets the interesting addition of blinkers after winning last time. 10 WINDBERN is solid and gets place credentials while if you forgive 4 weeks between runs for 1 ALL OUT OF LOVE for last start failure after Caulfield 2000m win in same race, the $21 is attractive.
Suggested: Back 2 Kiwia $2.30 bet now but the insurance is the obvious quinella 2-4. Be surprised if one of those didn’t win.
Race 3: 2-1-5-14
Putting aside a vested little interest and despite small share in 2 CURRAGH reckon in a BM 78 with the claim he looks well placed. Plodded on the heavy 10 in Sydney over 2000m last time, has run 2nd in an open 1600m, competitive in a 90,84,80 and last time in a 1600m 78 won. Any more give in track would be a bonus. 1 COLDSTONE failed to stay the 2040km at the Valley so back to 1600m here. 5 COSMIC LIGHTS got tactics wrong last time and has Williams now. Serious player. 14 SIR SAGAMORE needs touch of luck from alley. Respecting 12 HARDINGTON first time in OZ with this stable.
Suggested: 2 Curragh each-way $5 bet now
Race 4: 1-3-8-6
Very keen the Sydney Highways star 1 CLIPPER, who is unbeaten up to 1100m. Obviously respecting Matthew Dale anywhere and gets Melbourne missions pretty much right. Much form through the 8 UNIQUE LOVELY Moonee Valley race and there was no fluke about it, we liked the way race set up that day, tipped it and got the money. Different scenario here. Liked 3 MOONLITES CHOICE now in form with Williams on is right in the mix. Host of little place chances perhaps led by 6 IF NOT NOW WHEN.
Suggested: Go with 1 CLIPPER $4.40 bet now
Race 5: 2-1-9-4
Could make a winning case for most of these, typical of mares, luck in running the key. Perhaps best graded are 2 A LOTTA LOVE and 1 WHISTLE BABY (staving off retirement after luckless run last time and against own sex will be hard to beat). A Lotta Love is six weeks between runs and finds the easiest race its contested for a while. 9 SWISS KISS and 4 GREY STREET in my top four but wide race.
Suggested: 2 A LOTTA LOVE $6 bet now
Race 6: 1-2-8-3
Gelding has made the difference to 1 REVOLVING DOOR who landed good bets from this punting stable winning on return at the Valley. Last time home track 1400m was good 2nd Caulfield Guineas prelude. Like that form. 2 NIKITAS is beating itself, over-raced last time but still there at finish as will be here. The Ciaron Maher pair 8 ENIGMAN and 3 THROSELL should play leading roles. Waiting for the right race for 12 MY PAISANN – just saying (in case).
Suggested: Stay with 1 REVOLVING DOOR $5.50 bet now
Race 7: 14-2-17-3
Race morning scratching of 13 DATA POINT completely changes race and perhaps quaddie betting for the day. 14 VIOLENT SNOW is having good campaign, like them back 1600m to 1400m and gets Oliver now. But this is very tough now. 17 GERVAIS, 2 DEL PRADO, 3 ONEROUS and 4 POWERCHARGED would all go in.
Suggested: Invest in the wide quaddie. Favourite 13 DATA POINT should win but don’t like the odds.
Race 8: 1-8-9-2
Punters still licking wounds from the bad luck and bad judgement in tactics and use of them from the Valley run of 8 LEODORO. But that race is gone when it shouldn’t and this is tougher. Best value all day 1 SMACKDOWN, excellent return in the Golden Topaz Swan hill at first run for Weir and can’t believe the odds here. 9 PORTMAN won first-up last campaign and continued on with an excellent Flemington based campaign. 10 ZARA BAY was ridden for luck at the Valley and was very good. Clear chances 2/4/5.
Suggested: Good gamble 1 SMACKDOWN $12 bet now
Race 9: 5-12-9-15
Craig Williams has found 5 MAGIC CONSUL at the right time and the pair are in form. The 1800m is its trip, only beaten once four starts. Clear main danger 12 BELUGA BLUE with massive weight drop going to take on boys here after struggling but tenacious at the Valley. 9 RADIPOLE better for two 1400m runs to get grounded in Oz, now looking for this. 15 OVERBERG pulled too hard last time, ha the blinkers off and tongue tie to help that not happening gain here. Just query 2 ONPICOLO and 4 ZEBRINZ at the trip. Not leaving Weir 10 KANIAN out of quaddie after improved Swan Hill run.
Suggested: 5 MAGIC CONSUL to continue form $5 bet now
QUADDIE: (1)
1-2-3-6-8-12
2-3-4-6-14
1-2-4-8-9-10
5-9-12
$135 for 25%