26/08/15
There’s a saying that goes “cream generally rises to the top”. And it’s been proven to be an accurate saying a thousand times over – across many different facets of life. For instance it’s not hard to see a human that would come to the top in any endeavour they pursued. In racing across its three codes, the same thing happens. Let’s stick with the thoroughbred code and “cream” like Black Caviar in the thoroughbred world could race 25 times in her illustrious career across two countries and never taste defeat. Over three years from 1986 to 1989, a country mare named Miss Petty never tasted defeat and won 22 races straight. In just 11 months from August 1984 and July 1985 Picnic In The Park won 21 races straight. Ajax won 18 races in a row then famously got rolled in a three-horse race at 40/1 on. In Hungary a thoroughbred called Kincsem won 54 races and retired undefeated.
But every Saturday there’s “cream” to be found in many metropolitan race fields and to that end, the Handicapper generally gives us a good lead. He’s the best judge in racing and so more horses up in the weights win races rather than limit weighted horses, as put simply, unless it’s a “Plate” race, “set weights and penalties” race, or “Weight-for-age” race, the top weighted horses will be the class or “cream” of the crop.
So handicap racing is pretty straight forward but when it comes to “set weights and penalties” black type races and/or “weight-for-age black type races” many punters don’t look for the “cream” of the crop in the field – yet in reality it’s as easy to source as falling off a log.
The weekend Sportsman – apart from being an acknowledged top form publication – also sets out the proven black type CV of each acceptor. And if their “Black Type Rundown” columns are studied properly, they can lead to winners simply via pointing punters in the direction of the “cream” of the crop.
So here are three races that appeared in last Saturday’s Sportsman and the terrific information they contained – and over the three races, a punter could have won good money from just backing the “class” runner.
The Up And Coming Stakes “Black Type Rundown” read in part:
HORSE
G1
G2
G3
LISTED
Sebring Sun
0-0-0-0
1-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
2-1-0-0
Voilier
0-0-0-0
2-0-1-0
0-0-0-0
1-0-1-0
Shards
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
Inner Circle
0-0-0-0
1-0-0-0
1-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
Land’s End
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
Tatoosh
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
1-0-0-0
Man of Choice
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
Cannyescent
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
So from this simple “Black Type Rundown” it’s easy to see that Voilier is the “class” runner of the race, as he’s won or been placed at the highest level – in his case he’s run second at Group 2 level. With 1) no form study whatsoever and 2) backing the classiest horse in the race, a punter would have backed Voilier. He ran second at $8, beaten a long neck, in the eight horse field.
Move on to the Toy Show Quality and this is what was displayed:
HORSE
G1
G2
G3
LISTED
Two Blue
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
2-0-0-0
2-0-2-0
Amicus
4-1-0-0
3-0-1-0
1-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
Kristy Lee
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
4-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
Fine Bubbles
0-0-0-0
1-0-0-1
5-1-0-0
0-0-0-0
Myamira
2-0-0-0
2-0-0-0
4-1-0-1
3-0-0-0
Wine Tales
1-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
3-0-0-0
1-0-1-0
Echo Gal
1-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
3-0-0-0
1-0-1-0
Maastricht
0-0-0-0
2-0-1-1
3-0-0-1
1-0-1-0
Il Mio Destino
0-0-0-0
1-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
From this aforesaid table we can quickly see that Amicus is a furlong classier than the rest of the field, as she’s won at Group 1 level, whilst none of the others have even been placed at Group 1 level or won at even Group 2 level. Amicus won at $6. Sure she was resuming from a spell and only 10% of horses resuming in Saturday city races win first-up in the course of a calendar year, but my purpose in this article is to show how easy it is to pick out the “cream” of the crop. Once I know the classiest horse, then I can make a determination whether to bet or not. And in any event in many races when the Spring Carnival is about to get underway, virtually the whole field is resuming, as per say the Warwick Stakes last Saturday where 9 of the 13 runners (69.23%) were resuming, meaning the odds are good that a horse resuming from a spell will win the race – simply through weight of numbers.
Next at Randwick was the Group 2 Silver Shadow Stakes and that field read:
HORSE
G1
G2
G3
LISTED
Speak Fondly
1-0-0-0
2-1-1-0
0-0-0-0
1-0-0-1
Fireworks
1-0-0-0
1-0-0-1
1-1-0-0
0-0-0-0
Lake Geneva
2-0-0-2
0-0-0-0
2-0-1-1
0-0-0-0
Kimberley Star
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
Italy
0-0-0-0
2-0-0-1
1-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
Kangarilla Joy
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
0-0-0-0
Again in this line-up we can see that Lake Geneva and Speak Fondly stand out class-wise, as Lake Geneva has run two third placings in Group 1 races, whilst Speak Fondly is a Group 2 winner, so as a punter you have to work out whether a Group 2 win is better than a Group 1 third placing. In any event, the result was that Speak Fondly won the race at $5 whilst Lake Geneva ran third at $2.80.
And so via a punter being able to quickly peruse this sort of black type CV, it’s a big help to working out the class runner/s of a race, then watching as “cream generally rises to the top.”
Interestingly the “class runner” in the Show County was Decision Time which won at 30/1. He’d been placed second at Group 1 level, whilst the only other runner in that race that had even run a place at Group 1 level was Best Case which had run one third placing.
It’s a fact of life that a class airline like Emirates is dearer than a poverty pack one. A class motor vehicle is more expensive than an ordinary one. A class woman can be spotted a mile off and when she opens her mouth and speaks, she’ll reinforce that notion. A class racehorse will win more races than a slug. It’s all basic common sense but with many punters common sense isn’t very common because they either don’t know how to source such information, or choose to ignore it.
Tomorrow I’ll look at picking winners through using a little known angle. The results will shock most.
Today on www.brisbaneracing.com.au there’s the second montage of photos from Doomben last Saturday. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story onon-line auctions that are taking place currently for an injured licensee, whilst on www.melbourneracing.com.au there are two interesting stories, firstly about a banned vest which Racing Australia believes are still being used – whilst the second story is on the sad passing of a breeding icon, who first set up business in Queensland.