Back to Flemington, rail out 6 (was 3m last time) and should improve of race morning soft 5 but let us hope it’s a result turn around on the last meeting here where it was an average $20 winner on the day. And five of those winners return De Little Engine (R4), Zourkhan (R5), Guangzhou (R6), Sovereign Nation (R7) and Overstep (R8) from the May 20 rampage. Rail out is no disadvantage to those near speed and fence – normally.
BEST: Race 2 – SAMOVARE $2.35 bet now
VALUE: Race 6 12 TELL THE TRUTH $8 bet now
Race 1: 2-10-6-5
2 LONE EAGLE has been well found by long players who got as much as $3 first market. A lot to like about Sandown debut, wide, bit green, found line, gap to 3rd – all ok, but as low as $2.4 at time of writing is unders for mine but not denied a legitimate winning chance. 10 SIA, the well named $1.1m yearling (out of Hips Don’t Lie) is another winner from the Lindsay Park juvenile army and can only improve off slow out debut with experience. 6 ROYAL PHOENIX put away after ok debut and 5 PREZADO next best off sound debut.
Suggested: 2 LONE EAGLE is too heavily backed for mine already and if you missed price, stay out. Try 10 SIA at the value unless market adjusts race day.
Race 2: 1-2-12-8
Keen to take the gamble on 1 SAMOVARE. WA form has always stacked up well in Victoria, especially of late and this has black type form (G3) where most of these will struggle to get there. If you wanted another push, the Tatura trial was a sign she is ready to go first up 1400m. 2 PEDRENA is having an excellent campaign and no reason why that changes and think she is only danger. 12 MISS SISKA might be the suited leader at 1400m and form good enough and 8 SWAMPLAND only other chance.
Suggested: SAMOVARE has a touch of class on these. Straight out. $2.35 bet now
Race 3: 1-4-2-5
Good straight race, like 1 HUSSON EAGLE with good record up straight but the inside draw no spoil for it. 4 MILITARY REIGN – in good WA hands of Darren McAuliffe and has run in strong black type at home. Well placed with Aitken 3kg claim. Respecting obviously favourite 2 SANTA ANA LANE, form says yes, market tight enough, looking for better value. 5 O’MALLEY looks placed to close late.
Suggested: Something each-way 1 HUSSON EAGLE $7 bet now
Race 4: 5-3-9-8
This has fallen away with scratchings to suit 5 GOATHLAND won 3rd up last campaign as he is here and with Mertens is well in at weights. 3 FALAGO will run better on a track where he has run two seconds at the 2500m. 9 CHARLEVOIX has peaked and will maintain good form now, 8 UNFURL sure to run well.
Suggested: Looks like 5 GOATHLAND’s race $1.95 bet now
Race 5: 8-1-11-6
Almost impossible betting race and waiting on what English Irish Derby runner 1 KILIMANJARO will do first up here. If he wins – no surprise – if he runs well – ditto – do you want to back him? Not yet. No fluke about win fresh of #8 ZOURKHAN (albeit it $31) – now around $3.9 but down 3kg– but beat 11 PORTION CONTROL well enough to suggest 1800m same track next time suits. 4 ORMITO gets blinkers now and 6 AMRELA runs well home track, doesn’t win enough.
Suggested: Not suggesting anything here unless you have convictions about #1 KILIMANJARO $7.50 bet now
Race 6: 12-4-3-2
Tough start to quaddie – go wide. At the value going 12 TELL THE TRUTH who was good ducking and diving behind the brave 4 GUANGZHOU last time here. Key chances 3 DOCKER PAV and 2 KIWIA come back to own age – big plus. Nothing wrong with how 1 ALL OUT OF LOVE is going or 14 WINDBERN is shaping up. Be putting 7 ROYAL ORDER and 8 SOLO HEART in quaddie.
Suggested: Load up first leg quaddie
Race 7: 6-13-4
6 SOVEREIGN NATION has found winning form quickly this campaign or the form he has always promised to deliver. Top pick in tough race. Thought 13 RADIPOLE did more than enough first Aussie run. Respecting 4 LORESHO first time out for Weir at this trip. 10 AIRALIGN has good first-up record, 12 LOYALTY MAN goes in quaddie as must 8 ZEBRINZ but he is just not a punter’s winning horse.
Suggested: 6 SOVERIGN NATION safest each-way option $4.20 bet now but a wide quaddie leg again $
Race 8: 3-1-4-7
Think 3 DAM READY one to beat first-up here – another off back of good Tatura trial but also good group class performances. Has always promised better than this grade and off a 72 rating with Mertens claims, gets chance to deliver. 1 NASDEX is better drawn out here. 4 INVINCIBLE AL likewise will improve off first-up run. 7 LESSYD has started again off poor campaign and has blinkers again. 5 OVERSTEP draws low which doubt is advantage today.
Suggested: Straight out 3 DAM READY $4.40 bet now and narrow quaddie leg.
Race 9: 6-2-18-5
The trick here is assessing 18 PATTERN first-up off long break but obviously talented. Otherwise 6 NIKITAS gets good run here, fitter for two Weir runs and sound value. 2 REWARDING EFFORT has to overcome horror draw but better placed grade and distance wide at Flemington if gets some luck. Respecting Adelaide form of 5 SCHISM, 11 APPROVED ANGER has built good record for WEIR and is a must. If going wide include 4 ROSELLI STING.
Suggested: 6 Nikitas each-way $6.50 bet now while monitoring 18 Pattern moves.