We’ve reached the climax of the QLD Winter Carnival with 3 big Group 1’s on the card, The Stradbroke Handicap, QLD Derby and JJ Atkins. Doomben will host the meeting on a Good track, with the rail at 0.5m the entire course. Should be a great days racing, I’m hoping we can find some value.
Best Bets:
Race 1 #13 RARE OCCURENCE Each Way $11 bet now
Race 4 #12 PROMPT RESPONSE Each Way $6.50 bet now
Best Roughie:
Race 6 # 15 SILKY BROWN Each Way $61 bet now
Race 1
14 ALL OVER BOSANOVA looks the likely leader here and will be hards to run down. Had the race won everywhere but on the line when ran down by 2 TACTICAL ADVANTAGE last time. She meets that horse again here, but from the gate i think 14 ALL OVER BOSANOVA can turn the tables. 13 RARE OCCURRENCE has come back from a spell in great order, and looks ready to run a big race here. With a better barrier here today she can settle in the first 5 or 6 in the running and at double figure odds should be included. 4 RINGOS A ROCKSTAR & 1 HEROIC VALOUR the others with a chance.
Numbers: 14 – 13 – 2 – 1
Suggested Bet: Although she’s second Pick 13 RARE OCCURRENCE 1 x 2 Each Way appeals at $11 bet now
Race 2
Looks to be plenty of speed engaged here with 2 FLAMBOYER & 4 QUATRONIC both enjoying rolling along at high speed in their races. They look like they can settle 1 -2 here, that doesn’t necessarily mean they need to go ballistic in front. If they’re smart enough they can both win with the right speed on early. Looking at the horse that maps to get a nice run just behind that speed 5 NANCY fits the bill. She was arguably unlucky not to win the Silk Stocking last time out. She lost a plate that day and sustained a minor injury, she comes here a month between runs. There’s a slight concern being a month between runs, but If the money comes for her, you can be confident she’ ready to go. 11 MISS GUNPOWDER & 8 JIMMY REA can finish in the money with the right runs.
Numbers: 4 – 2 – 5 – 11
Suggested Bet: Having 2 WIN BETS here: 2 FLAMBOYER $15 bet now & 4 QUATRONIC $9 bet now
Race 3
6 MOHER looks a safe Each Way play here. From barrier 1 he can either lead on a medium tempo, or take the sit behind the leader if the likes of 1 RELIGIFY, 2 COOLRING or 3 COL’N’LIL want to take up the running. I think the above mentioned settle first 4 and figure in the finish. 4 ELLE LOU has been finding the line well and the speed up front is over done, she can figure late also.
Numbers: 6 – 1 – 3 – 4
Suggested Bet 1 x 2 Each Way 6 MOHER $4.60 bet now
Race 4
The obvious 2 on exposed form and market support are 7 RAIMENT & 9 BONNIE O’REILLY, granted both are a chance with luck in running, but I’m steering away from them. 12 PROMPT RESPONSE is the one I’m leaning too away from the favourites. She can settle right on the back of the speed and looks to get the gun run from the gate. 2 FRENCH EMOTION comes here first up off some cracking Autumn runs, the market will be the guide to her chances first up from the waller barn.
Numbers: 12 – 7 – 9 – 2
Suggested Bet: Each Way 12 PROMPT RESPONSE $6.50 bet now
Race 5
The QLD Guineas for the 3 year olds, with local hope 4 NICCANOVA the favourite. He has continued to step up every time he’s been asked. He handles all conditions and will be super competitive again here. The Melbourne visitor 2 OAK DOOR should make its own luck somewhere near the speed and be in the money also. A couple at odds that caught my eye are 7 SALSONIC and 5 CAERLESS CHOICE. They’ve had a similar lead up to this, both running in the HAWKESBURY GUINEAS then taking on the older horse in BM85 grade. 7 SALSONIC gets H BOWMAN on which is a big plus, as he doesn’t look like a horse thats easy to handle. With 3 runs now under his belt he looks to peak here for this. 5 CARELESS CHOICE went to the 2000m last time and is back to the mile here. Gets blinkers first time which can help him settle closer to the speed from the good gate. Looks a very good chance also.
Numbers: 7 – 5 – 4 – 2
Suggested Bet; Keen to Box 2 – 4 – 5 – 7 in Quinella & Exacta will also have WIN BETS 7 SALSONIC $16 bet now & 5 CAERLESS CHOICE $16 bet now
Race 6
The first of the Group 1 races, this one for the 2 year olds. 13 MELODY BELLE looks to have 1 hoof on the trophy here. She was devastating in the Sires, and looked to have some improvement in her in readiness for this. The clear horse to beat. 1 TAKING AIM ran second to MELODY BELLE last time and certainly has the ability to repeat that performance here. 3 CAPITAL GAIN has beeb running on into minor money recently. Gets blinkers first time here, with better barrier manners could place, but he does give them too big of a start. 15 SILKY BROWN is a filly at massive odds that i think can sneak into a place. She covered ground and smashed them at the provincials 2 starts back over 1530m. Shen then dropped back to 1350m in listed level and ran a super 4th to PARDOE, clocking the fastest closing 600, 400 and 200m respectively. Not sure she can beat the favourite but a big place chance.
Numbers: 13 – 15 – 1 – 3
Suggested Bet: MELODY BELLE is to short to back so it’s 15 SILKY BROWN very small WIN bigger bet PLACE $61 bet now
Race 7
Group 1 QLD DERBY for the 3 year olds with the southern raiders at the top of the market. 2 RUTHVEN & 1 VOLATILE MIX last met in the SA DERBY where VOLATILE MIX got the better of RUTHVEN. With the barriers looking to favour RUTHVEN, he gets his chance to turn the tables on VOLATILE MIX here. 5 VIOLATE was a good run last time out, should get a good run from the nice alley here and looks a chance at odds. 4 MONGOLIAN WOLF was meant to be on a plane to Brisbane, couldnt get a boarding pass so raced at Caulfield instead, when beaten out of sight. Happy to forgive that and keeping him in the mix here. 6 SHOCKING LUCK was beaten along way on the Eagle Farm surface last time when leading. Not sure wether he can bounce back off that, the market should give us a guide late. 16 ANA ROYALE is strong filly taking on the boys here, should acquit herself well.
Numbers: 2 – 5 – 1 – 4
Suggested Bet: Taking a BOXED EXACTA 1 – 2 – 5
Race 8
QLD’s premier Group 1, The Stradbroke Handicap. Doesn’t look a vintage year for the Group 1, a wide open affair with the drifting favourite 1 CLEARLY INNOCENT drawing gate 20. I’m with 8 MACKINTOSH after drawing well in Gate 1, likely to box seat on a solid tempo. Was a first up winner over 1300m in the Group 2 THEO MARKS last prep, and repeat the dose here. 3 BURNING FRONT, 6 HOOKED, 2 JUNGLE EDGE should settle on and near the sped, and with the right tempo can certainly figure in the finish. 1 CLEARLY INNOCENT was a brilliant winner in the Group 1 Kingsford Smith last time, but will need a 10/10 from Bowman from gate 20. 10 ULMANN can run into the money if the speed is hot.
Numbers: 8 – 3 – 1 – 10
Suggested Bet: Each Way 8 MACKINTOSH $6.50 bet now
Race 9
The last race on a massive day, hopefully its a case of “Exit light, enter night. Take my hand, we’re off to never – never land!” 5 NEVERLAND the on top here. She’s a classy mare who gets get back on top of the ground here, down in the weights and looks ready to peak this campaign. Although she hasn’t won in a long time, gets her chance here. 2 RUDY arguably could have won if ridden slightly more forward last start. Hasn’t won for 12 months but is consistent. 1 SINGLE GAZE is a winner, she’s a ripper. Nick Olive has her flying and she will be competitive again here. 3 BENZINI is a chance for the minors also.
Numbers: 5 – 2 – 1 – 3
Suggested Bet: 1 x 2 Each Way 5 NEVERLAND $5 bet now