MOONEE VALLEY Saturday December 23
Another Valley afternoon meeting, rail comes back from 6m to true to even things but surface has been in excellent condition all season and expect fair play. Not sure a BM 64 (r3) lures Saturday punters – recreational ones maybe, but that’s how the program fills out field sizes and now the 9 race norm as designed. Otherwise it’s a very challenging and open meeting.
BEST BET: Race 2: #10 PLEASURING
BEST VALUE: Race 1: #5 ROYAL APPLAUSE
Race 1: 5-2-6-7
Symon Wilde with two in this and going the value of ROYAL APPLAUSE coming off two good form building wins (latest this course/distance) and that appears over the odds in a race most have a chance. MILES OF KRISHNAN comes back to own sex and good with claim. HEAVENLY DESCENT has Mrs Gardenia form and that’s appealing. LA FLEURETTE had no luck last time.
SUGGESTED: Something on ROYAL APPLAUSE in a very even race. All have some hope.
Race 2: 10-5-1-2
PLEASURING is the only maiden in this race that is masquerading under a BM70 when it’s a virtual C1 (four last start winners – but none boasting more than 1). Weir scratched Pleasuring from a winnable mid-week and I think has pulled the right reign. Horse hit the line strongly (lost a plate too) Warrnambool 1400m last time. Liked the tough maiden win of CRIMSON AND CLOVER covering ground over the mile at Bendigo. KARDASHING jumps quickly to 1500m off two good 1200m 2nds while HELIX PARK was an encouraging winner on Mornington debut.
SUGGESTED: Keen PLEASURING
Race 3: 10-6-1-12
Almost impossible BM64 but going LA VOLT who had little luck in similar one of these 2nd up at Caulfield and doubt 1500m now an issue (is a winner over trip). GUANGZHOU resumed ov er 1400m at Bendigo and hit line well. Ready and right in this. KRUSTY went to the line untested at Tatura. MACATTACK is well placed with Steph Thornton’sclaim. Trainer and rider in-form.
SUGGESTED: Tough tough tough but something small LA VOLT.
Race 4: 4-2-1-8
Another race hard to enthuse over but will lean to Weir’s CRAFTY DEVIL who was a winner here two back then good at Ararat albeit Nov 12 but expect this horse has been at Weir’s new “retuning” centre at Maldon and will not lack any fitness. BRIGADIER was very good in Werribee Cup (rider dropped rein) and well graded. FONTEIN LAD and SHANGHAI PATROL were sound behind the now scratched O’Lonera at Pakenham. Not much between them and the latter is over the odds.
SUGGESTED: Banking on Weir’s mastery with CRAFTY DEVIL
Race 5: 2-1-5-6
Only two can win this and like the positive move of bringing IMPERIAL AVIATOR to Melbourne by Gai and Adrian and what a record they have built up (especially with Baster) in saddle on Saturdays. ONCIDIUM RULER is going to be giving it a startbut was obviously unlucky in Pakenham Cup and won well only time here. That’s the race. BLING DYNASTY can run a place. ORMITO was well held in Pakaneham Cup and has only won once. May be getting there.
SUGGESTED: IMPERIAL AVIATOR on top.
Race 6: 14-5-11-2
Very tough start to quaddie. Going with JUST HIFALUTIN who had excuses (wide) in between two good wins including latest here when beat KIEVANN. Think that form holds again as both like this track. DATA POINT just can’t find a way to win again but will be better for fair return (beatern favourite again) on deteriorating heavy 9 Sandown. Overs is KHUTULUN, great fresh record, runs well here and is the value. But others like ATLANTIC CITY, PAINTE and KING RIVER have hopes.
SUGGESTED: Wide start to quaddie but hzappy tih JUST HIFULUTIN as main play.
Race 7: 2-1-12-8
Good prizemoney for VOBIS horses here and MURAAHIB who has run well around MERCHANT NAVY and BROOKER (especially first-up last campaign) looks the obvious. That’s superior form to opposition and recent jump out was ok. BEL SONIC has drawn out, also has Merchant Navy form and was very impressive resuming Pakenham. Only seen TELEPLAY once and liked what I saw and runner-up has won twice since. AEECEE TONG DE next pick. So respecting it.
SUGGESTING: MURAAHIB clear top pick.
Race 8: 8-14-1-6
Now this is tough Thought out of the race that NASDEX beat WISE HERO at Pakenham LEODORO (3rd, btn 2.5 lens) would be the one best placed here, though respecting others, just the prices seem wrong (at the moment at least) when you can get $16 Leodoro and around $5.5 Wise Hero (a winner here) and $7.5 Nasdex who might just get more pressure out of the Valley 1000m chute, especially with SIRBIBLE having to push on from wide. But again other hopes like INVINCIBLE AL and MODERN WONDER.
SUGGESTED: LEODORO at the odds in another tough race.
Race 9: 5-9-11-10
I just can’t get WIDGEE TURF at $2.9. Yes impressive returning (on a heavy 9) and building sound record (won 4/11), out to 1500m 2nd-up shouldn’t present an issue but it is worth noting in assessing form. Can win but at the odds I am going with AMADEUS who won with some ease at Pakenham (sure Burning Front may not be going as well as he can but he was left lamenting there). Big query is Waller’s Aussie debutant LE JUGE while Weir has raced ROYAL ACE into winning fitness and form.
SUGGESTED: AMADEUS better value over favourite WIDGEE TURF.
QUADDIE:
1-2-5-8-11-14
1-2
1-8-11-12-14
5-9-11
$90 for 50%