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RANDWICK

 

SATURDAY 16 DECEMBER

TRACK:   SOFT 5 (5.24) Expect upgrade                       RAIL:    TRUE

 

 

 

BEST BET:        Race 1             No.1     CALCULATED

NEXT BET:       Race 2             No.6     VICTOREM

 

 

Race 1

1 – 5 – 4 – 6

On paper and in the betting it looks a two horse race with CALCULATED and the favourite Awesome Pluck. I’m the Calculated corner and perhaps that’s to do with the rap I’ve had on him for a good while. I’d love him to be a gelding as he was a little thinker last preparation but one thing for sure he has got good ability and if he is too progressive to some better races he must handle this lot. Awesome Pluck is a bush horse with big expectations on his shoulders and judging by his recent trial win at Rosehill he is back in very good order.

 

 

Race 2

6 – 4 – 9 – 1

Wow what a barrier trial by this galloper VICTOREM behind group one winner Music Magnate. They ran fast time and he got to the line in outstanding fashion looking like a group horse himself and not competing in a TAB Highway. He runs up to the trial and its thanks very much ladies and gentleman. Buddy Honest is first up but has hopes as his last start prior going to the paddock was a strong winning effort at Rosehill. Takookacod didn’t have much luck a fortnight ago at Rosehill and his form prior was very good so keep safe here.

 

 

Race 3

1 – 4 – 3 – 5

BROADSIDE is the one beat as he turns up here off a super winning performance in the ATC Cup a fortnight ago at Rosehill over 2000m. Stepping to the 2400m here is probably the only little query as he has yet to win past 2300m but has a placing twice at the mile and a half. At the current quote of well in the red I’m sitting it out. Vassal never looked to travel last start over this trip but the start prior he was in winning and that was when he lumped 60kg so he drops seven kilos coming here. He must be considered a player with the light weight and being proven at the distance. Prince Cheri is the blow out here as his last couple of efforts have been solid especially his latest when making up goo0d ground in the straight behind the Villiers favourite Interlocuter.

 

 

Race 4

10 – 5 – 2 – 3

MISS INVINCIBLE debuted a fortnight ago and many believed she was a speedy squib but after pulling for almost 600m with the jockey trying to restrain her she had the audacity to fight like a lion to go down in a close photo. I am banking on race experience having benefitted her greatly as well as the jockey experience having now ridden her in a race. She will take some running down. Irish Bet from the John O’Shea yard trialled very smartly and showed good natural speed winning his barrier trial last week at Warwick Farm. Sanctimonious is up from Melbourne and looked above average at his one race start when running second at Sandown. He has to overcome an awkward gate and show he can do on firm ground unlike the heavy track on debut.

 

 

Race 5

3 – 4 – 9 – 12

Looks a good betting race here with the favourite coming off a Friday night win and the second pick seemingly having trouble finding the line. I’ve settled on SECRET TRAIL who resumed and was outstanding finishing the line from well back to beaten just on a length in a race dominated by those on-pace. From a soft draw I imagine she can position a little closer and be there at the business end. In Times Of war always runs well and should again here from the perfect barrier. The little three week freshen up according to her trainer Chris Waller has sparked her back up so expect her to be in the mix. The favourite Sugar Bella resumed off a 489 break and was impressive winning at Canterbury. She will carry no weight here and must be kept safe but to my thinking is under the odds.

 

 

Race 6

2 – 3 – 6 – 8

SEDANZER picks herself here having won both runs this campaign and looking destined to line up in better races. She steps up another 100m in trip to the mile and the map has her finding a perfect spot tagging Dreamforce who is likely her main danger. Dreamforce looks to fly solo and like last start will give a big sight from the front. Chatelard is a winner having won three from four starts and although he will benefit from the run don’t let him get under your guard. Zourkhan is in the same boat being first up and well no one missed his impressive trial victory last week at Warwick Farm.

 

 

Race 7

2 – 8 – 11 – 7

It’s hard to knock the favourite Interlocuter who has come back a real serious racehorse being across the line first in all four starts and after drawing a perfect gate for the Villers and with only 54.5kg on his back he will be hard to toss. Mister Sea Wolf has only had one start in Australia and run a cracking second in the lead up Festival stakes so expect him to have come on. Crack Me Up has been in good form up north and must be given serious thought from barrier two and from an astute stable of Liam Birchley. If you can forgive Cabeza De Vaca where he went too keenly and pulled up mildly lame he must be given serious thought. But after all that I’m jumping on the RED EXCITEMENT train around the $15 mark. Since almost beating Winx he had raced flat and looked disinterested but a few little changes and riding him back he looks the Red Excitement of old. From a good gate I’m he can settle midfield and if gets daylight from the top of the straight he’ll come at them.

 

 

Race 8

14 – 7 – 5 – 13

A tricky race because the top two picks I’m not convinced are genuine in getting the job done. I THOUGHT SO won’t get a better chance of winning from a soft barrier being rock hard fit and a luxury weight of 53kg so that’s why he found his way to my top pick. Calanda clashed with I Thought So two runs back at Flemington when close up before being narrowly beaten at Doomben a fortnight ago. The travelling is a little concern for him. Big Money is the big odds one I think can play a role especially after drawing barrier one. He hates wet tracks and that is what derailed him last campaign and again last start following a good run first up on a slightly less unsuitable soft surface. If the breaks fall his way he can run a cheeky race. There are several other chances in what is an open Razor Sharp.

 

 

Race 9

9 – 2 – 14 – 1

MALAISE went super first up from a nine month spell at Canterbury behind his stablemate Bratislava when second at Canterbury when forced to lump 62kg over the 1250m a distance short of his best. From an ideal barrier here he should position up in the first four of five and with his acceleration prove hard to toss. Redouble is low flying at present and looks the main threat to Malaise even with the impost of 60kg. He drops back 100m which I think suits him better so as long as he gets luck in running he will be amongst the main spoils. Siren’s Fury will always need luck as her pattern is to get back and charge home but on her best she is well and truly capable of winning here. She will carry a light weight and from a low draw will need gaps to open up but if they do she can dash.

 

QUADDIE:

1st leg:  2 – 3 – 6 – 8

2nd leg:  2 – 5 – 6 – 7 – 8 – 11

3rd leg:   1 – 5 – 7 – 8- 10 – 13 – 14

4th leg:   2 – 9

cost $84 = 25%

 

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