GEELONG CUP Day Wednesday October 25
There has been just over 4mm of overnight rain leaving the track a soft 5 on a mild race morning with a chance of scattered showers through the day but doubt any more impact on the track. Rail naturally true from 9m previous and traditionally on this day has favoured on-pacers near fence. Typically tough Geelong Cup day but good betting if the punters can nail it.
BEST BET: GALLIC CHIEFTAIN Race 7 #4
BEST VALUE: CRYSTAL FOUNTAIN Race 8 #16
Race 1: 13-7-8-9
SARACENA is 4 weeks between runs but my main dangers STAR MAJOR (track was soft 5) and ARTISTIC DESIGN (in new Busuttin/Young stable and has trialled ok) are fresh-up. Surely Williams gives this sweet run from 4 alley. Good way to start Cup day. Stable going ok too!
SUGGESTED: Going with HHD – SARACENA
Race 2: 1-3-7-8
TIGER TIM was good breaking through getting out to trip at Ballarat. Can only keep improving through the grades where most of these can’t. UBIN THUNDERSTRUCK (2nd there) is stuck at this level but sure to be competitive as always. BAYKOOL gets a visor and is the value for exotic bets.
SUGGESTED: TIGER TIM to win, saver quinella with UBIN THUNDERSTRUCK
Race 3: 9-1-2-7
Liked CADABRA’s tenacity out to 1600m at Ballarat. Extra 100m here will prove no problem. PUFNSTUF has quickly found form this prep, win at Seymour excellent (nailing short-priced favourite with city form). BEACH LIFE has many issues at Mornington – missing start, pulling up lame. POTEMKIN is favourite – too short for me.
SUGGESTED: Value here with CADABRA
Race 4: 2-3-7-12
GOLD FIELDS (big from back) beat EMOJI (travelled wide) last time out and expect them to fight this out again in similar order. FRESHWATER STORM is a veteran racing well home track. CAPTAIN RHETT limited hope in race of little conviction.
SUGGESTED: Play small, GOLD FIELDS again.
Race 5: 12-5-6-10
Good race for URBAN RULER to resume in and hopefully track allowing them to run on as he can and can win. Scratchings have helped. BROADWAY AND FIRST resumes for Weir. KIRANI is under-rated. LORD BARRINGTON is tough.
SUGGESTED: Urban Ruler is in for a good campaign. (Starting here)!
Race 6: 6-7-3-1
Good edition of the old Geelong Derby trial and using the Flemington UCI 1800m race as best guide and still sticking (one more time) with WEATHER WITH YOU (who finished behind) stablemate JOHNNY VINKO and ANAMALIA (gets winkers) but hoping the blinkers on Weather are the key. ASTORIA is coming off a sound Group 1 performance but depth in this, respecting SAVAHEAT and OCEAN’S FOURTEEN.
SUGGESTED: One more time WEATHER WITH YOU.
Race 7: 4-8-3-11
Looks ideal for GALLIC CHIEFTAIN coming through the hot Herbert Power formline (Lord Fandango etc). Peaking for this at fourth run in. In same colours comes KELLSTORM who continues to improve under Weir guidance. BERISHA found form again at Mornington. GREY LION ok at Cranbourne and this race last year. WHEAL LEISURE is on the rise.
SUGGESTED: Very keen GALLIC CHIEFTAIN.
Race 8: 16-11-2-1
Super tough race. Freedman scratched CRYSTAL FOUNTAIN from Saturday (did the same with Shamar to win Tuesday Kilmore) and think this right move also. Drawn to get ideal run but plenty of opposition here. WRITTEN ERA has had little luck in better races lately and gets a better draw here. QUILISTA was sound at Caulfield and sure to be in the finish. Not sure any other winning chances.
SUGGESTED: Good gamble for CRYSTAL FOUNTAIN.
Race 9: 15-16-9-7
No easier here. Been a while between wins but in first main preparation for Weir is SANG CHOI BAO who was good at Ballarat. JUST HIFALUTIN resumed with encouragement at Mornington. BORD DE GAIN likely to run favourite and rightly so off sound return. AJANI has gear change and will need a Bowman special from wide gate. Respecting PRIVATE LOUNGE (fresh/Oliver)
SUGGESTED: Go wide in quaddie. Something small on SANG CHOI BAO.
QUADDIE:
1-2-3-6-7-11
4-8-11
11-13-16
7-9-12-15-16-20
$162 for 25%