CAULFIELD Wednesday February 21
Clever move by the Melbourne Racing Club to shift this to their main track for a wagering advantage – rail out 14m means no impact on Blue Diamond day – another warm week to be firm and rail out tends to favour them getting wider.
BEST BET: CULLINGWORTH Race 3#3
BEST VALUE: OVER AND ABOVE Race 8 #14
Race 1: 2-7-3-4
Scratching of SEBERATE leaves stablemate NASAAYIM ($650k Redoute’s Choice) a very short priced favourite. Ballarat win soft and impressive off a just missed Flemington debut. And respect that form. But I’m having something on SYD’S COIN at the odds – a $26k Denman- who handled Illustrious Lad attacking the line on debut win at big odds (form holds up). Thinking despite no money NOT A SINGLE CENT ($280k half to Happy Clapper – same colours Kings Will Dream), can run well off a Cranbourne trial 3rd. TITAN BLINDERS was good late on debut. 1200m a plus.
SUGGESTED: Good 2YO race for those who miss Diamond but SYD’S COIN a decent gamble at the odds.
Race 2: 12-6-14-1
Looks a Weir race, wow who’d have thought. Follow the market lead for SOPRESSA ($5.5 into $3.4) and form around its returning 2nd Terang (stablemate Leicester is very strong). Always like this stable off provincial’s placings to the city where MUJAADIL had chance doing same at Sandown last time. Both want 1600m. One of two should win. CREEDENCE was ok on city debut. CIVIL GUARD has been consistent and another place chance for it.
SUGGESTED: Weir to win, thinking its SOPRESSA, as many others seem to be.
Race 3: 3-8-2-6
Looks like CULLINGWORTH ready (staying at 1600m) to win 1st Aussie race though prefer 1800m to 2000m – maybe trained differently here though. Not all went right at the Valley as winner sailed by. TOP OF THE RANGE was good resuming in unsuitable 1400m race after quick Syd/Brisbane campaign. SOHOOL better placed here and shouldn’t be as keen as Morton’s Fork race. ALL OUT OF LOVE will be better for sound return.
SUGGESTED: Like CULLINGWORTH clearly but some depth again here.
Race 4: 2-1-3-5
Keen DIAPSON ready especially out to 1600m now after 3 runs at 1400m. ASTARA has no recent wins but reckon having had the 1600m run and with any luck in running gets right chance to return. RISING HOPE was ok at Sandown and like Weir’s back from 1800m. FLORIDA PEARL a place chance.
SUGGESTED: Looks perfect race for DIAPASON.
Race 5: 8-1-2-5
Sorry – this gets a bit weary. Weir has my top 3 here, headed off by THINK BLEUE off an impressive Ballarat maiden win 2nd run back and no issue out to 1600m, will possie up. LUCKY CAT has better form credentials and not disgraced Paris Rock/Earth Angel and ready 1600m also. SO YOU LEICA is an improving talent but needs big step here. PAMELA off a Kyneton win in similar boat, but respected. PAGEANTRY has talented but I’ve warily dropped off here after a string of disappointments (losses!).
SUGGESTED: Weir wins, which one? I think THINK BLEUE.
Race 6: 2-7-10-11
What a horrible betting race. So limited winning form. It’s a take it turns type event. So quaddie wise load up (then expect the favourite but it should be $6 the field0. Don’t want to tip you any way here but GILCHRIST is back from a BM78 at the Valley. Maybe. GREAT LANE at his best would win this but keep tumbling into thinking he’s close and he hasn’t been. Anyway move on.
SUGGESTED: Can’t help you here. Never seen a tougher challenge. But watch these numbers lob now!
Race 7: 8-11-13-2
Only off a Kyneton maiden win but SIRIUS SUSPECT looks just that for Weir. Numerous fringe dweller dangers but can’t identify one with more upside is the value, might need this, has trialled up well but significantly that was 990m, has blinkers off. KENTUCKY FLYER is going well enough to be competitive but form card has very few wins. Ditto AMERICAN GENIUS but a 3YO against older here says yes.
SUGGESTED: Go with a SIRIUS SUSPECT.
Race 8: 14-2-6-8
Very keen on OVER AND ABOVE. The form around SUMMER SHAM is verging black type for me. (It runs in Vanity Saturday after MV win Friday night). Deep race with the 3YO’s measuring up – including CRITICAL THINKING – better with closing ride like 1st-up than when ok in stronger race last time. Fits in with KACHING (Scratched), who just needs to win one. Have to seriously respect CAPE SOUNION in form and taking good steps. PARET a chance.
SUGGESTED: In what looks race littered with hopes, very much going OVER AND ABOVE.
QUADDIE:
1-2-8
FIELD
8
14
$36 for 100%