Ladbrokes Park Hillside Saturday December 30.
Juggling races and classes and form and this shapes as and must be treated as a very much midweek assessment, albeit rail back to true though from 12m December 20. So challenging form lines to dissect but as we found on a similar card Boxing Day, value can be your winner.
BEST BET: Race 4 #4 MAWZOONA
BEST VALUE: Race 5 #2 ANGRY GEE
Race 1: 1-8-3-9
So this is simply (in my assessment, the better one that has raced in FAKE (who isn’t) v the much spruiked LOVE LUCILLE– $360k sister to Scarlet Rain (who has won a Tatura trial – beating DARK CONFIDANT – who was ok) – in the Lindsay Park stable. AL DORAMA – a $190k yearling – went better in a Caulfield jumpout than Colac trial. THREEOOD– bred at Black Caviar’s home– Gilgai Farm – has shown enough in home track jumpouts. Tricky start to tricky day – late money may be a guide but market respects LOVE LUCILLE already.
SUGGESTED: I’m staying with FAKE for experience.
Race 2: 1-4-2-7
Good race, many chances, very even. Going RED CHOUX’S for Weir with brown claim. Good Caulfield 1700m last time, never runs poorly, can certainly win and goes on top. DOMESTICATED a clear threat (Lindsay Park) 4th run in, fitter for run at trip, hard not to make a claim. SHAQUIN out to this trip 1st time, looks well prepped to be competitive. 3YO filly LADY SEABRING won an easier C1 contest MV last time and shapes as an improver, not sure can win, but can play.
SUGGESTED: Time for Red CHOUX’S.
Race 3: 6-5-1-2
Staying with the winning form of LIFE ON THE WIRE – albeit a month between runs – but stable has admirable strike-rate Melbourne, especially MV. Destroyed deep BM70 field this track and returns for similar kill. Danger is MOONLOVER primarily – going well, no answer Widgee Turf here last time and form franked so respect. Big query is ZASORCERESS – fresh – better than these if Weiry has it right. SINGLE NOTE the value, was 1100m last time, great closing speed (at $61), 1400m suits now.
SUGGESTED: Winners keep winning for me – LIFE ON THE WIRE.
Race 4: 4-2-1-7
Ok, here we get into the even BM70’s – attention required (as usual). MEMORY BANK off a high rating is the respected one (and with winning form) give 3kg claimer Liam Riordan a chance for Lindsay Park. No risk on form, but reckon MAWZOONA a better gamble – switching to Melbourne and going Maiden win, Class win and this not a tough BM for next step. Touch luck alley but decent back straight run. LIGHT ROMANCE has been sound in similar grade and not much luck last time at the Valley. TWITCHY FRANK is the must respect, Maiden to a BM64 on a favourable pattern but love Weir’s improvers.
SUGGESTED: Something MAWZOONA but play around with numbers.
Race 5: 2-5-6-9
Another BM70 over the 100m and where to go here. Reckon ANGRY GEE is the value, not much luck in decent race Pakenham (Wise Hero 2nd). But after that, loads of hopes. EL SICARIO must be fitter of debut MV 955 return. SANG CHOI BOI has found winning form for Weir and then they normally hold a competitive edge as stable new bloods. Respecting ROYAL NAVY fresh up off a jumpout. This short of best but best of it good enough to be in the mix.
SUGGESTED: Value – ANGREY GEE
Race 6: 11-1-7-3
Interesting race from a Weir perspective. The old front running bulldog BURNING FRONT is struggling for a win but so well placed here and the bold charger OZI CHOICE has found that form dominating from the front. What to do? Going to lean a fitter THELBURG to turn over Ozi Choice from last time, staying down in weights, race map etc. Solid query on LITE’N IN MY VEINS – if runs to Rich Charm return in spring, probably wins. Other hopes.
SUGGESTED: THELBURG each-way.
Race 7: 1-14-6-10
Another good race (BM78) and don’t think any disadvantage at the weights for GUIZOT running off that rating with only a 5kg spread to lesser preformed horses. Sticking around this 1600m trip rather than stretching out I see as a positive. To the other end of the scale saying LIGHT ‘N’ FIRE off 53kgs is an improving threat and Weir doesn’t dodge grades at provincials without a reason. ANCIENT HISTORY is ready and TENAPPY LADDIES is in form.
SUGGESTED: Top and bottom. Something GUIZOT, saver LIGHT ‘N’ FIRE.
Race 8: 8-3-6-7
Back to tough competitive BM70 and going FRAULIEN RUSTIE who was wild betting drifter at MV resuming but ran well. (Jocasta 3rd). Drawn to some hopeful advantage here to drag the speed into only turn. CLUB TROPICANA won well here two back then no luck behind stablemate CREATIVITY last time. FICA GAL controlled moderate lot Mornington BM 64 but that’s ok enough for this. IF NOT KNOW WHEN has a reputation (not great) but enough for this grade and can improve fitness wise off fair return Creativity race last time.
SUGGESTED: Good gamble FRAULEIN RUSTIE.
Race 9: 12-17-6-15
Good luck blasting out here and hope loaded into the quaddie. Like the state switch by Waller of THE AVENGER and form around Cellarman reads well now for this grade. SOHOOL comes through BON ROCKET race (Tango Rock too) and should turn that over. CANNOT BE SERIOS resumes on a suitable big track if anywhere near some competitive fitness. Think SIMPLY SPLASHING is the overs off Warrnambool win.
SUGGESTED: THE AVENGER is wide race.
QUADDIE: (go wide and flexi)
1-2-3-7-11
1-2-6-7-10-14
3-5-6-7-8-9
6-12-15-17
$182.50 for 25% (it’s that sort of day – hope for a split)