FLEMINGTON Super Saturday March 10.
BEST BET: KINGS WILL DREAM Race 2 #5
BEST VALUE: MISSROCK Race 6 #12
Race 1: 3-8-4-5
Least attractive betting race of Super Saturday. Most have a chance, none would really shock if they won. They will hunt up the middle in a pack and rule of thumb doesn’t like inside draws. NASDEX was well backed in strong BM90 last time and found out not surprisingly at 1200m. Back to 100pm here looks attractive. CONCEALER is a straight track 1000m winner. Goes in for that. SUNDAY ESCAPE is also a proven straight horse competitive in this sort of race (DEMONSTRATE form ties in). DANCE WITH FONTEIN had it run to suit The Valley, this different but run here around Ball of Muscle says yes -include.
SUGGESTED: Have a light start. The NASDEX can be volatile. And better investment options later.
Race 2: 5-6-1-3
KINGS WILL DREAM is a legitimate star in making just burning through the grades and distances. Don’t believe a knocker who thought he was plain winning BM84 at 1600m here last time. He now gets to 1800m (tick) in BM90 and I reckon he will absolutely control this and is the bet of the day. Winners keep winning for mine, especially one like this who is getting to his distance range. WHEAL LEISURE was excellent resuming at 1400m but can’t see how she gives the fit in form top pick a start and runs by. HARRISON represents Team Williams and there important have all turned up in the autumn, fit and ready to go. Am respecting it. SIN TO WIN was entitled to run home slick sectionals behind KWD and did and will do so again and not beat it. WILLI WILLI has had a freshen.
SUGGESTED: Best of the day here – KINGS WILL DREAM.
Race 3: 6-9-3-10
PORTMAN back to Flemington 1400m appeals here. Ran as well as good straight 1200m this is right trip, right track and won 2nd-up last prep here 1400m, so much to like. DOWNHEARTED continues to race well and though creeping back from 1800m to 1600m to 1400m brings that fitness edge and tried to make Kings Will Dream stretch last time. KING’S COMMAND is in form at the trip, chance, SUNDAY PRAY ready now.
SUGGESTED: PORTMAN clear top pick.
Race 4: 3-6-2-14
Well hasn’t this historical race changed with now only 2 from Diamond going on, RUN NAAN (2nd last) and MORE THAN EXCEED 10th (btn 9 lens). Where to go? OUTRAGEOUS beat TIN HAT at Newcastle and it would then win well on speed Ballarat. That should tie in well here. Note D Dunn went to Newcastle for that where it gave it 2kg, now same weights but…… So making a call that form line. SANCTIMONIOUS has to be some doubt 1400m after some tough runs but hasn’t shirked tasks. NASAAYIM shapes well, good gate, progressive filly. Yes.
SUGGESTED: Trying SANCTIMONIUS in wide Sires.
Race 5: 3-7-8-12
Sometimes you can ignore the obvious. Not so here. SUMMER SHAM has made the right progressions and improvements at every level to G2 last time, makes own luck, waits seemingly for a challenge and then repels it. Moor gets this filly right and love that scenario for it but especially for an O’Brien trained 140m on-pacer Flemington. And love the $7.5 – Puhleaze! You will try and make cases for PALAZZO VECCHIO behind it (or SMART COUPE and COUNTERPLAY ditto – no) or try the Tulip form and seek out SHOKORA (yes good) but leave me alone with the bomb proof. No sham.
SUGGESTED: Bet up again punters – SUMMER SHAM.
Race 6: 12-1-2-11
Terrific race, fan of so many of these but love the $21 MISSROCK. Thought terrific in Lightning (REDKIRK WARRIOR – so meets it 3.5kg better here). Not singling that performance only out of Redzel, RICH CHARM form card but happy to gamble away at the odds, proven G1 mare including 2nd Vega Magic in a Goodwood – and it would run close favourite here. Anyway, loads of respect REDKIRK WARRIOR (we loved fresh to nail Redzel) but fresh is the key, yet form card says 3/5 2nd-up so a big yes, despite weight. BRAVE SMASH back from 1400m G1 (x2) is a tick for me. Obviously MERCHANT NAVY in on 52kg, a Coolmore 3YO G1 straight winner ducking and diving is hard to ignore.
SUGGESTED: Try the big odds MISSROCK.
Race 7: 3-1-5-7
Skinny race for winning chances I reckon. SAMOVARE is 2/2 2nd up to 1600m now after excellent return when I like it as Silent Sedition found form. Ran like it needed it and peaked, can do so here. SHILLELAGH is obviously a G1 1600m winner this track (Cantala -whatever it’s called) – ready after 2 G1 runs in when given little hope and now back to own sex, right track and trip. Yes. SPANISH REEF is a little star under the radar. MA JONES can run well off this and keep improving.
SUGGESATED: SAMOVARE looks the obvious. SHILLELAGH the clear danger.
Race 8: 4-11-3-1
Have to roll with GAILO CHOP -you won’t have an issue in the run, that’s his style, SUPPLY AND DEMAND isn’t good enough to worry him but will drag him forward. Is a Mackinnon winner here and won 6-12 at the trip, Why not? SINGLE GAZE is flyer, huge respect. Love to find a handicap for her, but right there. HARTNELL seems well back into this level. Keen to see AMBITITOUS – goes in the saver quaddie with its world class Kitasan Black form. ALMANDIN has blinkers, hard to leave out too.
SUGGESTED: Stay solid, GAILO CHOP to win but don’t doubt others will make him earn it.
Race 9: 3-6-1-5
REGIMEN debuts at Flemington off excellent The Valley return from near last – note the pattern there – and that was behind TULIP – who would towel these up. So big yes. But needs Williams to extricate from inside alley in a straight race which I loathe. TWILIGHT SONG handled Platinum Angel Sandown, reckon both very progressive. PREZADO will appreciate this grade. FREEZE OVER has some Booker straight form here and both runs back quite sound.
SUGGESTED: Wide qauddie, REGIMENS appeals as main hope.
QUADDIE:
1-2-4-6-7-11-12-14-15
1-3
4
1-3-6
$54 for 100%
Or
1-2-11-12
1-3-5
1-2-3-4-10-11
1-3-5-6-7-10
$219 for 50%