CAULFIELD BLUE DIAMOND DAY Saturday February 24
Forget the front and back pages, we are at Caulfield for 3 group 1 races and a brilliant meeting. Loads of depth but love the betting value. No forecast rain came but it has been a dry week hence 41mm of irrigation, will race firm. Rail into 3m from the 14mm Wednesday card.
BEST BET: Race 4 #6 SUMMER SHAM
BEST VALUE: Race 6 #11 SHOWTIME
Race 1: 9-1-4-2
ALMANDIN is clearly the best horse and the one to beat, his 110 rating is 10 points clear of stablemate HOMESMAN (now gelded) making his Aussie debut so with 60kg he’s well in. (Stable on Thursday advised, HOMESMAN will lead, ALMANDIN will be ridden quietly. Against that BEDFORD (78) is poorly weighted with 54kg against him but just thinking he’s fit, flying and worth persevering with but with obvious respect and maybe egg on face for ignoring the obvious. Well not ignoring but that’s the call. GALLIC CHIEFTAIN (95 rater) was terrific resuming and jump to 2000m perfect – think this will be his best Aussie campaign.
SUGGESTED: Something on BEFORD knowing ALMANDIN is clearly the better horse (right now but maybe – hopefully – just not today.
Race 2: 1-3-8-13
Like the race, think main bet between ASTORIA (excellent resuming at 1400m and straight to 1800m here). Won 1600m 2nd up last campaign and MR SO AND SO who beat Astoria home at Caulfield but that was its 2nd run in so thinking slight fitness edge. Still only an Echuca maiden winner but shaping up well as maturing 3YO. RELLSON is also 2nd-up, disappointed at Pakenham 1400m fresh but 2nd up winner (1400m) 1st prep and Carbine Club run was full of talent. Including the filly TAGREEDA against the boys here, should get good run out of trouble for the 1800m.
SUGGESTED: It’s either ASTORIA or MR SO AND SO, leaning the former, taking the quinella.
Race 3: 2-1-4-3
Always keen when Weir drops one 1400m to 1200m especially off a good run as is the case with PREVAILING WINDS and probably went a touch too hard and all others around him in finish came from back half. OVERSHARE ran into a good one who got the inside run CLIFF’S EDGE (since good) at Caulfield – I DID IT AGAIN through the same race and not much between them but elevating PIRACY fresh Melb off Sydney trial and WILD HEART who has been busy but positive lead running here.
SUGGESTED: Good gamble PREVAILING WINDS.
Race 4: 6-2-7-8
Good gamble here with SUMMER SHAM, 2 for 2 and looked as though waiting for a challenge at the Valley 2nd up and when got it, answered. Expect kicks up and controls from inside draw. Loads of upside. SMART COUPE -the centre of the “Willowed post-race live stream scandal” is obviously a threat. As Williams explained, horse missed the start and tempo worked against it. First crack trip looks ideal. (note Williams doesn’t ride here with more regular partner D Lane back). EARTH ANGEL stays 1400m, may prefer further but will be strong late. SEE ME EXCEED on the other hand is looking for 1400m and a corner, especially on home track.
SUGGESTED: SUMMER SHAM best value for day.
Race 5: 7-1-6-8
Going touch value ($10 was bet, half that now) again here via SAMOVARE fresh. Hasn’t won fresh but think 1400m here will suit, progressed well last campaign. SILENT SEDITION to run short favourite, as it did resuming and ended up looking in need of run 1200m. Now to different tempo in 1400m should give it chance. FLIPPANT is hard and fit and pretty foolproof out to 1400m. JESTER HALO is fit and racing well, may get lead here, over-raced in the tougher Orr when outclassed.
SUGGESTED: SAMOVARE at odds fresh.
Race 6: 11-4-3-1.
Just working on how this race pattern is. LORD OF THE SKY (Oliver the big plus) had no hope when missed start in the Orr and ran very well considering what it had to do against many of the bigger names. Trialled brilliantly Monday and will lead. But think SHOWTIME gets the run off it and can be best served now to 1400m after good Expressway run in Sydney. Obviously Weir’s BRAVE SMASH (unlucky in Orr) and ready now and TOSEN STARDOM (day off in the Orr) and can bounce back here. Couldn’t squeeze MIGHTY BOSS in but of course can win.
SUGGESTED: Having something on SHOWTIME and a little fly at LORD OF THE SKY.
Race 7: 16-11-1-8
Good luck. Got to think up to 10 legitimate winning chances, who have shown they have the ability to win races or be competitive against each other as most have some intertwined form lines. OOHOOD is top pick, comes in a maiden against the likes of unbeaten LONG LEAF and WRITTEN BY and the completely under-rated LADY HORSEOWNER. Just think OOHOOD will eat the 1200m and the pressure of a Blue Diamond. KINKY BOOM comes off a non Blue Diamond form line but had to admire the trial into the win in a week. So she goes in. PLAGUE STONE is yet to win but reckon it has Written By at least covered at 1200m.
SUGGESTED: OOHOOD for the record or who knows. Not many surprises.
Race 8: 2-4-16-11
Again looks tough on paper but drill the form and you come up with RUSSIAN REVOLUTION – unbeaten 3/3 campaigns (including two back over Redzel, last time Heatherly at the Valley in the Spring. And seems to be going as well as ever. So he’ll do. HELLBENT (blinkers again) has not won for Weir (that’s weird) but reckon this is a race to suit, ran well here last year (without winning), he’s the value. SHE WILL REIGN is a high class sprinting filly, resumed well, why wouldn’t be competitive. BONS AWAY beat Brave Smash here in the spring. Not leaving out.
SUGGESTED: Happy with RUSSIAN REVOLUTION in a typically deep Oakleigh Plate.
Race 9: 1-2-9-10
Is HARTNELL back to best? Nothing to knock about Orr win and can only think 1800m under similar conditions is the one to beat. GAILO CHOP has come back in great form. Certainly going to look the winner and make himself without bad luck. SINGLE GAZE forever runs well and forever gets little credit for it. Hard not to think she’s competitive as usual again. ABBEY MARIE is ready to lift and take the next step, no recent wins, but run in Orr behind Hartnell was good.
SUGGESTED: Staying with HARTNELL.
QUADDIE:
1-3-4-10-11
1-2-4-8-11-12-16
2-4-11-16-17
1-2
$175 for 50%