FLEMINGTON May 5
After the Bool still have a bit of Weiritis – only tipping him for 4 wins today and that’s just at Flemington where it comes up with a little give (Good 4) after 1.6mm overnight rain and about 6.2mm late in the week. Rail back true (from 10m) so would expect fair play based on race tempo.
BEST BET: Race 7#8 LAND OF PLENTY
BEST VALUE: Race 6#14 ANOTHER BULLSEYE
Race 1: 1-3-9-2
What a great name for a race – Living Legend Graham Salisbury – the man alongside Subzero – no greys in this race and a tough start at that. Noting early betting move for YULONG MERCURY who was $5.5 into $4.8 Friday. Going GRACEFUL STORM who is only winner in the race and obviously has done that in both times to the track, albeit without massive market confidence $8 and $7. Liked recent trial of EMBRACE ME, a $90k Shamexpress filly, showed pace and natural ability. b shows ability and not far away from a win.
SUGGESTED: Treading warily, sticking with the winner GRACEFUL STORM but respecting market leads.
Race 2: 8-4-7-1
The trap in assessing this race is the Team Williams runners ALOFT and SHERLOCK HOLMES coming off well below par and market expectation runs, Aloft virtually eased out of Sydney Cup and Sherlock Holmes towelled by Gallic Chieftain (Warrnambool Cup) and SIN TO WIN at Flemington. Giving Sherlock Holmes the top ranking with note that blinkers back on, track a touch easier than last time and down on 51kg happy to try at better odds again. Tempo will be solid – DIVINE SANCTION (chance) and MULTITUDE certain to be looking for traditional forward spot, allowing Aloft a lovely run I’d suspect.
SUGGESTED: Staying with SHERLOCK HOLMES.
Race 3: 9-11-1-7
Pretty keen on LIPSTICK LOVER (around $4.4 at time writing), blinkers have turned her into a winner including one over St Leger winner Runaway. Was sound chasing a handy one in Adelaide and well grounded for this now. DIAPASON has no recent wins but no recent bad runs either – chased a tough MY PSYCHIATRIST who was first-up 2100m at Lakeside last time and has to rate well again here. ALMALITA will roll along in front but might find a friend in TOKEN OF LOVE ensuring tempo may suit those chasing which means include BERTWHISTLE.
SUGGESTED: Keen on LIPSTICK LOVER.
Race 4: 3-4-7-2
It’s Weir again with ANCIENT ECHOES, graduated from Mdn to a BM70 – tough task then excellent same grade mid-week when wide and kept coming. Can see it getting the right run here. RENEGADE was a $31 chance but ran better than that chasing talented Weir galloper Think Bleue at Flemington last time. KEYSOR trotted in at $1,45 in a fair Maiden Ballarat while CONNERY has learned how to win from a Maiden to a BM64. QUEEN LEONORA is on the improve, I liked it’s Bendigo maiden win.
SUGGESTED: Keen on ANCIENT ECHOES ($5.5)
Race 5: 2-1-3-8
Don’t like this race, going MALIBU STYLE back to the 1000m, has a little experience at that caper now, neither flash light runs but reckon they have been much tougher races. GUN CASE reads with a moderate straight track Flemington record but is a tough sprinter, it’s that sort of race. ROCK ‘N’ GOLD won the Kensington (LR) here 5 runs back and not badly weighted after claim. OUR GLADIATOR under the limit has a hope but not much would surprise here.
SUGGESTED: Go easy. Not suggesting you play hard here.
Race 6: 14-3-6-2.
While this is a tough race, I am much keener to play here than R5 – and it is 1st leg of quaddie. Have taken the $10 about ANOTHER BULLSEYE (now $7 after few scratchings) who probably just landed wrong spot but was tough through the line behind talented French Emotion. Reckon from good gate can be positive and race more cosier. Good value bet. GALAXY RAIDER finally repaid the punters a little running up to the $2.10 quote at lakeside with 61kg. Going to need better luck I believe from its good draw with its racing pattern than my top pick. KILMACURRAGH will have to roll forward from gate but like the way it’s going, maybe wants 2000m now but – goes in. BOXACHOCOLATES will be better placed 1600m after sound Aussie debut at 1400m.
SUGGESTED: ANOTHER BULLSEYE at the odds appeals.
Race 7: 8-10-13-4
Getting in short now LAND OF PLENTY but has to be top pick. Good strong Bendigo win (1st for Weir) then a $2.5 favourite Caulfield and took time to get moving into it. Only 2/18 but contested good races and up to low grade stakes races enjoying Weir’s handling. KING’S COMMAND led it up at Bendigo and will give sound sight again, meets it 2kg better for Bendigo prior to Land of Plenty’s Caulfield run. KAPAULENKO is 3 from past 4 – albeit in easier grade but will be chasing King’s Command and make luck here. RHYTHM TO SPARE did beat home Land of Plenty at Caulfield, always a fringe player in this grade.
SUGGESTED: LAND OF PLENTY to win. It’s either him or load up quaddie (take 2).
Race 8: 5-4-1-2
Interesting that 3 of these resume at 1800m, the Caulfield Cup winner BOOM TIME, HIGH CHURCH (last year’s Warrnambool Cup winner) off long break and SECOND BULLET (O’Brien trying this a bit lately. But I’ll go MAGIC CONSUL down on 51kg and is racing in best form of career. Must get good run from draw. The other 3 are the class. But insurance in wider quaddie means 3/6 both considered.
SUGGESTED: MAGIC CONSUL carries the fitness edge against classier runners and 51kg appeals.
Race 9: 1-13-2-10
ICONOCLASM was outstanding on Anzac Day here at the 1400m when strong through the line – typical Weir style strength late. Think MOANA JEWEL can use inside alley, was slow out Lakeside and good late. LORD SUNDOWNER is another to press forward. Resumed well after good spring campaign. FRIEDENSBERG was $1.80 when leading for impressive debut win. Plenty of other talent here but all have to be on game to beat ICONOCLASM.
SUGGESTED: It’s ICONOCLASM clearly or another wide minor quaddie.
QUADDIE:
2-3-6-14-17
8
1-2-3-4-5-6
1
$30 for 100%