Flemington Grp1 day tips with Snowy

FLEMINGTON

Saturday March 3

 

 

 

 

BEST BET: FRAGONARD Race 3 #1

 

BEST VALUE: OVER AND ABOVE Race 9 #12

 

 

Race 1: 2-11-1-5

There was an early betting move for Lindsay Park 1st starter ABSAROKA (Redoute’s Choice f $375k) who has won a Flemington jumpout (half to Montana Flyer). Stablemate NOMOTHAJ was impressive winning the Maribyrnong Trial in the spring, everything went wrong on Magic Millions trip so back to straight a plus. Interesting Baster (Nomathaj has ridden both starts) but goes with THUNDERDOME. (Stable also has VIRTUAL INSANITY in betting. Jumpouts good). OLLIVANDER is better than Prelude failure.

SUGGESTED: Respect money for ABSAROKA but tipping stablemate NOMOTHAJ.

 

Race 2: 2-4-3-5

After last week when Team Williams went 1-2 with 1st uppers in the staying race, got to think theses horses are now well seasoned and prepped up to go in relatively short autumn campaigns albeit it 2600m. Going ALOFT who has won his last two 1st up runs at 1800m and 2000m Melham rides him well. FANATIC ready to peak I’d suggest at 3rd run in and good grounding for Flemington 2600m. DOUBLE BLUFF is most effective this distance range and in terrific form. ORMITO next best.

SUGGESTED: Thinking ALOFT can race forward and outstay them.

 

Race 3: 1-2-5-9

FRAGONARD chased well enough in pace dominated race at Caulfield (finished in front of Silent Sedition). Inside alley in a straight race and back to 1100m might not read alluring but think it’s the right horse for the race. HEAR THE CHANT is a straight track winner here at the trip, resumes here. ESSENCE OF TERROR is the likely leader and give a sight given they don’t normally go hard 1st half straight races. WORKING FROM HOME is effective fresh, has some hope.

SUGGESTED: Hoping it works out for FRAGONARD.

 

Race 4: 1-4-2-8

Nothing really went right for OREGON’S DAY last preparation (that happens with its racing pattern) and it became a costly one for punters. Starts off another campaign at 1400m which is a good option and think its better than these. FLIPPANT is fit, racing well in black type races, this should suit better. DEJA BLUE was race forward and give itself a chance. SOHO RUBY has had a freshen since a below par performance in January when it never came into it. Respect HARLOW GOLD’s class but wants further and not many wins, albeit has raced in tough company.

SUGGESTED: Start getting it back with OREGON’S DAY.

 

Race 5: 4-8-9-11

Typical tough low rating race for the day (BM78) but like the way MR FERGUS progressing and the price. Out to 2100m Sandown last time charged through the line. Is going to need luck as that’s its pattern but believing what you see. BIG PAT’S PONTIAC has found form around this distance range. VUNGERS is the tough on-pacer who won’t have any excuses. SEATTLE PARK was very impressive out to 1950m at Yarra Valley. Expect he can be competitive here (as are others).

SUGGESTED: MR FERGUS to charge late.

 

Race 6: 1-4-8-11

TSHAHITSI has earned the 60kg especially against these. Forget the Orr run, his from the front win with 59kg in the Barton was typical of him – almost bomb proof. If there is a danger it is the well found POETIC DREAM, the German G2 Guineas winner (at 1600m) and looked quite sharp in a recent jumpout. Well more than sharp, it was a “when is it running” type declaration. NOZOMI won at big odds fresh here last campaign and then was competitive in good races. VIOLATE has talent and can figure.

SUGGESED: TSHAHITSI to win despite massive move for POETIC DREAM.

 

Race 7: 2-7-11-4

Reckon CLIFF’S EDGE can turnover the Hayes form line here under the weight conditions, though his run was terrific. That said respect MAIN STAGE (4th there) and looking for 1600m, GRUNT will just need some luck from alley but have to admire how he has gone about it. Oliver dumped LEVENDI for it, but you can’t ride two and comes in well off 1 run back and was the Carbine Club winner in the spring track and trip.  Terrific race.

SUGGESTED: Another Guineas for Weir – CLIFF’S EDGE

 

Race 8: 1-2-3-6

FELL SWOOP has been belting his head against the best sprinters for his past two campaigns, this is an ideal race to boost that confidence again. Has trialled well. SECRET AGENDA looks to have come up well again, did beat Viddora in the G1 Sangster, that’s good enough here as well his recent jumpout. CRYSTAL DREAMER is a proven straight horse. Not going to ignore the Tassie form of I’M WESLEY  who at his last start beat Hellova Street, that form is well up to this.

SUGGESTED: FELL SWOOP is find the winner’s stall again.

 

RACE 9: 12-13-6-2

OVER AND ABOVE ran into the promising Summer Sham on debut. Was out to 1440m at Caulfield and just missed out (sadly). Fitter for that, gets good run and like it, especially at odds. INDERNILE is itching for 1400m, last time it raced over trip at Flemington was 1.25 lens from ALOISA. Also value. SCARECROW and CAO CAO come through the tougher Hayes (Grunt/Cliff’s Edge etc), both runs had merit.

SUGGESTED: Good bet OVER AND ABOVE.

 

 

QUADDIE

1-4

1-2-4-7-11-15

1-2-3

2-6-12-13

$72 for 50%

 

 

 

 

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