ROSEHILL analysis + Richie’s tips

ROSEHILL

 

SATURDAY 18 NOVEMBER

TRACK:   GOOD 3    (4.58) (overcast)                   RAIL:    +6M

 

BEST BET:        Race 7             No.6     BEST GUESS

NEXT BET:       Race 5             No.5     CABEZA DE VACA

 

Race 1

4 – 5 – 3 – 6

 

To my eye there are three clear winning chances.

EASY EDDIE has impressed winning his past two and should scoot through from barrier one and again be very hard to run down. He looks to have a good future. I do believe HELIOSPHERE is the best horse but from his gate he will be giving away a start and it’s just whether he can run them down. I’d be more confident if there was more pressure or it was 1400m. SPARKY LAD is the one that will camp on the back of the speed and play a major role. He comes here off a six week freshen up after running third to highly regarded Goodfella.

 

 

Race 2

5 – 1 – 7 – 3

 

I’ve got the Waterhouse/Bott mare SEDANZER on top that turns up here off a blistering trial win at Randwick when she rounded them and raced away. Sedanzer hasn’t raced since running down the track in the SA Derby back in May. I don’t think she stays so expect more zip this time around. From a good gate I expect her to settle just behind the leader or leaders and at some stage look the winner. SLOW BURN is the likely leader and will be looking to do exactly what she did a fortnight ago when winning with ease. She will have to carry an extra 4kg here though. SIREN’S FURY will get back but if she gets her chance in the straight she will be motoring and looks the likely danger to my top two selections.

 

 

Race 3

6 – 4 – 2 – 1

 

LEAD CHOREOGRAPHER has drawn the outside gate but with only Shalmaneser looking to have early speed I expect Brenton Avdulla can roll forward and control this race. The big chestnut has been in consistent form and will give plenty of cheek here. IMPAVIDO is without doubt the big threat but again he will be giving a start to Lead Choreographer at the top of the straight but if the tempo is fair he will be hard to hold out. The extra furlong from last start is a big bonus.

 

 

Race 4

3 – 11 – 1 – 7

 

SHE KNOWS did a good job winning at Randwick last month and comes here having trialled nicely at Goulburn on November fifth to keep her up to the mark. The good barrier will ensure she gets her chance again. BORN IN BARCELONA comes to town but I have always had a nice rap on her winning in good fashion last start at Muswellbrook. EQUAL BALANCE did a good job here a fortnight ago when caught wide when sixth behind O’lordy. He looks to get a far more economical run here from barrier four and will appreciate the claim for James Innes junior.

 

 

Race 5

5 – 3 – 7 – 2

 

God bless CABEZA DE VACA three weeks ago when he resumed in outstanding fashion winning at Randwick and I see no reason he won’t be very hard to beat again. The form out of his last win when he accounted for Supply And Demand and subsequent black type winner Duca Valentinois has been strong. He stays at the 1400m which is the only slight concern. FEDERAL and FIRSTHAND look his two biggest threats.

 

 

Race 6

6 – 8 – 3 – 4

 

Hard to tip against INTERLOCUTER as he has been ultra impressive this preparation resulting in a win that turned to defeat courtesy of the stewards and two wins. The withdrawal of Dark Eyes will make his task a little tougher as that leaves Embley flying solo up front and this bloke can get a little bit keen if its a walking race. BLACK ON GOLD will keep him honest coming off a terrific win last start when slow away. He is a big fell and is now rock hard fit so he should continue to race well. NEW TIPPERARY won this race last year and has been racing well and will again be in the mix again. He looked home last start only to be run down by Black On Gold.

 

 

Race 7

6 – 9 – 1 – 11

 

Wow this race has changed complexion with the two leaders both taken out. It was expected that Eccellere and Fifteen Sunflowers would be the pace makers but it now leaves BEST GUESS to take up the front running role. His three runs this campaign have all been terrific and if he relaxes in front they won’t see way he goes and if something else wants to lead he will camp on their back. PIPELINE is first up off 10 months and although expected to really improve with the run under his belt he is a smart horse and has looked solid in recent barrier trials. PICK ME UP is another one who should just race off the speed and get his chance.

 

 

Race 8

2 – 4 – 3 – 7

 

COSMIC ENGINE returned in good order winning at Canterbury when he looked a little pretty in the yard as though the run would do wonders. That was 17 days ago and now he jumps in grade but steps to 1400m which will suit him better. FLOW is first up off two barrier trials with the latest suggesting he has come back in good order. I expect him to roll forward and on paper he looks to get a nice run perhaps just off Noble Joey. REDOUBLE backs up after returning to his best form and getting the job done here last Saturday. A little tricky gate but a repeat of last Saturday and he will be in the mix.

 

 

Race 9

10 – 11 – 8 – 13

 

POMELO was very good here two weeks ago when he stalked the speed before getting the job done in good fashion. He has drawn perfect again and if he jumps cleanly he will be somewhere on pace and be there at the finish. GLENALL is first up after a 32 week spell but has been readied for this with two quick barrier trials on the sixth then the thirteenth of November. This is his first start since joining the Hawkes family training partnership. TANGO RAIN drops 7 ½ kgs and on his best form would be hard to get past here. He has drawn wide but if the marbles fall his way and he gets across or drop in behind a leader he will give you a sight.

 

QUADDIE:

1st leg:     3 – 6 – 8

2nd leg:    1 – 6 – 9

3rd leg:     2 – 3 – 4

4th leg:     8 – 9 – 10 – 11 – 12 – 13

$81 = 50%

 

QUADDIE:

1st leg:     6

2nd leg:    6

3rd leg:     2 – 3 – 4

4th leg:    FIELD

$36 = 100%

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