29/05/13
On 30/8/12 I publicly placed on this website the first of what was to be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is.
The eight previous articles, which can all be viewed in date order in the relevant Justracing archives at the far bottom of this web page, contained the results of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first eight calendar months of the new racing season. The results that have emanated from the monthly article’s have no doubt shocked many industry participants, particularly punters, who formerly may have had no aversion whatsover to backing horses resuming from a spell. After reading what goes up here monthly on the topic, over the 12-monbth timeframe, hopefully the end result will be a far more educated and disciplined punter.
Also noted in each article is 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.
It’s now time to review the April 2013 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States.
Please note that in the below text obviously “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.
The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of April 2013 in those three States reads:
DATE
CITY
HORSE
WKS OFF
PLACING
PRICE
TRAINER
6/4
B-S7
Flying Riddle
20
6
$9
Green
Bar Queen Jojo
20
12
$26
Bourke
Slainte
18
10
$61
Birchley
Gunner Knox
18
3
$7.50
L. May/Smith
Zamboni
18
3
$11
Hulbert
Around The World
13
5
$15
Hanna
Kneeling
25
7
$5
Thompson
Balkuin
22
3
$4.20
Hill
Strike The Tiger
19
10
$21
Heathcote
Maury
23
2
$9
Thompson
Saint Encosta
20
8
$31
Thompson
Warrior Within
29
12
$51
Hill
Antarctic Dream
24
14
$21
Hill
Veralini
15
13
$41
Doughty
S-S7
Reliable Man
24
6
$51
Waller
Rolling Pin
21
5
$15
Markwell
Happy Zero
21
12
$81
Hawkes
Rarefied
68
4
$21
Snowden
Star of Octagonal
46
15
$61
Howlett
Wild And Proud
21
13
$21
Pfieffer
Say No More
28
7
$11
Waller
Hidden Warrior
22
8
$31
Perry
M-G3
Register
14
8
$5.50
H. Conners
Patricia Dawn
16
7
$6
P. Hyland
Opening Bell
18
5
$41
Noblet
Benenden
15
5
$8.50
Freedman
Purple Storm
23
9
$7
Corstens
Rock Princess
26
6
$41
C. Hyland
Elfina
18
4
$11
Hawkes
Finiguerra
24
1
$18
Dodson
Great Player
25
13
$81
Craven
Hollowlea
59
11
$101
O’Sullivan
McClintock
20
12
$6
De Montfort
13/4
S-D5
Safeguard
16
1
$3.10
Snowden
Class Is Class
27
8
$31
Waller
Illo
24
3
$41
Waller
Moriarty
13
5
$9
Waller
Less Is More
25
14
$21
Vandyke
Detours
22
5
$8
Snowden
Gai’s Choice
19
12
$31
Pfieffer
Forfeiture
19
15
$51
Snowden
Forarainyday
20
3
$61
Walter
Epaulette
26
2
$41
Snowden
M-G3
Genteel
20
3
$5
Snowden
Walk With Attitude
22
4
$26
Weir
Royal Rada
25
8
$14
McDonald
Spirits Dance
18
6
$16
Moody
Lidari
29
2
$7
Moody
Laristan
49
11
$51
Hayes
Verdant
21
4
$21
Smerdon
That’s The One
27
2
$9
Alderson
Crucial
17
9
$15
A. Freedman
20/4
B-S7
Equissential
14
8
$26
N. Saunders
Anagold
14
9
$18
Guy
Londehero
18
4
$4.80
Dunn
Ginga Dude
28
5
$13
Boyd
Rothera
22
8
$14
B. Smith
Poste Restante
16
7
$15
Forster
The Conspirator
18
4
$17
Sears
Shamrock Slipper
14
7
$15
Birchley
Great Cheer
18
5
$81
Lockwood
Green Birdie
23
10
$31
Duryea
Muir
104
17
$101
Miller
Biggles
14
12
$21
Doyle
Latin News
24
7
$26
Dais
Excellantes
19
6
$12
Heathcote
Celtic Dancer
14
8
$31
Doyle
Meet George
40
5
$31
B. Smith
Mr Armstrong
25
11
$21
Thompson
Fire Up Fifi
16
6
$9.50
Heathcote
Punch On
30
12
$26
Balzen
Purfectress
15
10
$26
Doyle
S-H9
Queen Pin
19
6
$41
Payne
Scrutiny
17
5
$13
Snowden
Sunshine Royale
17
7
$5.50
Pfieffer
Eucumbene
31
7
$5
Walter
Potions
22
3
$17
Thompson
Ethiopia
23
17
$21
Carey
Cantonese
15
10
$15
Baker
Merlin Mustang
13
3
$17
Tudman
Euryale
14
11
$6.50
Snowden
Destiny’s Kiss
23
6
$17
Pride
Home On A Wing
22
9
$91
A. Cummings
Honourable Aussie
20
12
$71
Thompson
M-D5
Tiarazou
15
1
$2.15
Waterhouse
Dalton
13
4
$3.70
Hawkes
Lucky Penny
35
1
$4.40
Morgan
Fuddle Dee Duddle
18
8
$17
Hayes
Hazard
13
1
$11
Freedman
Seaside
21
5
$9.50
Snowden
Ava’s Delight
26
7
$26
Weir
Zabeelionaire
23
7
$51
Corstens
Medvedev
14
7
$9
Moody
Magniloquent
20
9
$26
Moody
27/4
B-G3
Vesper
43
13
$151
Jacobs
Raeburn
83
6
$101
B. Smith
Delago Pilli
13
11
$10
Pollock
Preacher Boy
15
12
$21
Milne
Delago Bolt
16
1
$14
Lyons
Baqaba
84
13
$101
Tregea
Rocker
45
8
$4.80
Schweida
Solebid
16
10
$15
Cousins
Buffering
24
1
$1.70
Heathcote
Startsmeup
15
5
$17
Meagher
Listen Son
22
4
$61
T. Gollan
Hidden Kisses
29
3
$12
Heathcote
Dream’n’ignite
16
9
$3.80
Forster
Wonderful Jester
22
13
$51
Thompson
Cuddlesome
15
6
$5
Ross
Miss Bradbury
16
10
$61
Schweida
S-G3
Floria
14
2
$31
McKee
Rangirangdoo
26
5
$26
Waller
Fiorente
24
3
$51
Waterhouse
Fat Al
22
12
$5.50
Waterhouse
Master Harry
57
11
$31
Quinton
Manawanui
31
5
$11
Lemon
Firebolt
44
8
$31
Waller
Bold Glance
25
10
$26
Hilton
Somepin Anypin
29
7
$8
Waterhouse
Stratana
21
14
$41
Sergeant
Renewed Vitality
25
13
$26
Thompson
M-D4
Awesome Bro
28
6
$3.30
Corstens
Cool God
22
9
$41
Ellerton
Motivado
28
5
$4.60
Hayes
De Fine Lago
96
5
$151
Vasil
Aribaa
31
12
$20
M. Kavanagh
Alpha Proxima
17
9
$20
Corstens
Bocuse
55
12
$71
Bourke
Royal Bender
24
10
$9
Weir
Halle Rocks
17
3
$5
Price
Serene Star
24
1
$10
Kent
To show what an exercise in futility it is backing horses resuming, during April 2013 another 131 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 131 horses only 8 (6.10%) won, meaning that in the nine months to date of the current racing season, a total of 1317 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races and of those 1317 horses only 117.5 have won, which means just 8.92% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the months of August, September, October, November and December 2012 and January, February, March and April 2103 – so conversely an amazing 91.08% lost.
If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $1317 and they’d get back just $904.91, so they’d lose 31.30% of their stake. To set the record straight, two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12 and another roughie won in January 2013, when $26 hope Frisco Lights won in Brisbane on 19/1/13. In February 2013 a series of roughies won resuming, namely Grey Countess ($17), Alzora ($18) and Mrs Onassis ($16).
Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 113 horses in that category, season-to-date, so a punter would obviously outlay $113 and the return would have been $102.61, so a punter would lose on this strategy also – and the financial loss would only be 9.20%. In the month of April 2013 of the 6 horses resuming that started $4 or under, only 3 (50.00%) won.
In the racing season-to-date, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.
In the racing season to date, the best training performance was by Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington after 59 weeks off. The second best effort in the racing season to date was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other three trainers who have trained a Saturday city class winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks – were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12, Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off and Liam Birchley who trained Emmalene to win after 40 weeks off at Eagle Farm on 30/3/13.
In Brisbane only 25 of 308 first-up horses have won in the season-to-date, which means 8.11% have won – and conversely 91.89% have been beaten.
In Sydney 45 of 434 horses resuming to the end of April 2013 have won, which means 10.36% have won – and conversely 89.64% have been beaten.
In Melbourne 45.5 horses (includes Puissance De Lune’s dead-heat half a win from March 2013) from the 524 that have resumed to the end of April 2013 have won, meaning an abysmal 8.68% have won, or conversely 91.32% have been beaten.
In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where the group resuming provided the winner was on 16/3/13 at Warwick Farm in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes where 10 horses resumed – Hay List, Temple Of Boom, Atomic Force, Decision Time, Tiger Tees, Second Effort, Howmuchdoyouloveme, Fire Thunderbolt, Snitzerland and Single Style – and Snitzerland won the race as the $3.30 favourite.
In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where that group of horses didn’t provide the winner was at Flemington on 8/9/12 in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes when seven horses resumed – Affable, Molto Bene, Armed For Action, Sabie, Donna Cattiva, Dazzler, All About The Coin – but 25/1 chance Members Joy won the race easily.
So Justracing can reveal that backing horses resuming from a spell is an absolute and utter waste of money, as even in the season-to-date, 15 of the 117.5 winners (12.76%) started at odds-on, so 15 horses weren’t even betting propositions, because of the odds-on factor. As a matter of interest, Buffering ($1.70) was the only horse to resume at an odds-on quote during April 2013 and he was successful at Eagle Farm on 27/4/13.
Punters would be well advised not to bet early into fixed odds markets this weekend in Brisbane and Melbourne, as no one could possibly have a clue at present what the right track rating will be at either venue. What the Eagle Farm track rating could finish up for Oaks Day on Saturday is anybody’s guess following persistent showers yesterday afternoon and those showers will be around for the rest of the week according to the Weather Bureau. Melbourne is due to get quite a bit of rain both Friday and Saturday, which is certainly unusual in that capital city over the last 12 months, so be aware of that. And as I came past Ipswich thoroughbred track yesterday afternoon about 3pm it was copping a drenching. The city of Ipswich has received 12mm in the last 18 hours. Fortunately for Ipswich they don’t race this Friday though, or the horses would have ploughed the track up and the Ipswich Cup is only a few weeks away, so the club probably is welcoming the rain that is happening this week.
On www.brisbaneracing.com.au today there is the second montage of photos from Doomben last Saturday. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story of two arrests made in the NSW harness industry, along with thoroughbred trainer Greg Hickman turning $24,000 into $1,160,850 – then on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls continues to look at just how slow Australian racing is to embrace new technology.