BACKING HORSES RESUMING FROM A SPELL IS A QUICK WAY TO THE POOR HOUSE…..Part 9

29/05/13

On 30/8/12 I publicly placed on this website the first of what was to be 12 monthly articles proving how financially catastrophic the practice of backing horses resuming from a spell is.

The eight previous articles, which can all be viewed in date order in the relevant Justracing archives at the far bottom of this web page, contained the results of all the horses that had resumed from a spell in Saturday metropolitan races run in each of Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in the first eight calendar months of the new racing season. The results that have emanated from the monthly article’s have no doubt shocked many industry participants, particularly punters, who formerly may have had no aversion whatsover to backing horses resuming from a spell. After reading what goes up here monthly on the topic, over the 12-monbth timeframe, hopefully the end result will be a far more educated and disciplined punter.

Also noted in each article is 1) the track rating that prevailed at the end of the relevant race meeting, as well as 2) the trainer’s name and 3) the placing of the subject horse and 4) the official starting price.

It’s now time to review the April 2013 results from horses that resumed in the three eastern seaboard States.

Please note that in the below text obviously “B” stands for Brisbane, “S” for Sydney and “M” for Melbourne.

The full list of horses that resumed in Saturday city races for the entire month of April 2013 in those three States reads:

DATE

CITY

HORSE

WKS OFF

PLACING

PRICE

TRAINER

6/4

B-S7

Flying Riddle

20

6

$9

Green

 

 

Bar Queen Jojo

20

12

$26

Bourke

 

 

Slainte

18

10

$61

Birchley

 

 

Gunner Knox

18

3

$7.50

L. May/Smith

 

 

Zamboni

18

3

$11

Hulbert

 

 

Around The World

13

5

$15

Hanna

 

 

Kneeling

25

7

$5

Thompson

 

 

Balkuin

22

3

$4.20

Hill

 

 

Strike The Tiger

19

10

$21

Heathcote

 

 

Maury

23

2

$9

Thompson

 

 

Saint Encosta

20

8

$31

Thompson

 

 

Warrior Within

29

12

$51

Hill

 

 

Antarctic Dream

24

14

$21

Hill

 

 

Veralini

15

13

$41

Doughty

 

S-S7

Reliable Man

24

6

$51

Waller

 

 

Rolling Pin

21

5

$15

Markwell

 

 

Happy Zero

21

12

$81

Hawkes

 

 

Rarefied

68

4

$21

Snowden

 

 

Star of Octagonal

46

15

$61

Howlett

 

 

Wild And Proud

21

13

$21

Pfieffer

 

 

Say No More

28

7

$11

Waller

 

 

Hidden Warrior

22

8

$31

Perry

 

M-G3

Register

14

8

$5.50

H. Conners

 

 

Patricia Dawn

16

7

$6

P. Hyland

 

 

Opening Bell

18

5

$41

Noblet

 

 

Benenden

15

5

$8.50

Freedman

 

 

Purple Storm

23

9

$7

Corstens

 

 

Rock Princess

26

6

$41

C. Hyland

 

 

Elfina

18

4

$11

Hawkes

 

 

Finiguerra

24

1

$18

Dodson

 

 

Great Player

25

13

$81

Craven

 

 

Hollowlea

59

11

$101

O’Sullivan

 

 

McClintock

20

12

$6

De Montfort

13/4

S-D5

Safeguard

16

1

$3.10

Snowden

 

 

Class Is Class

27

8

$31

Waller

 

 

Illo

24

3

$41

Waller

 

 

Moriarty

13

5

$9

Waller

 

 

Less Is More

25

14

$21

Vandyke

 

 

Detours

22

5

$8

Snowden

 

 

Gai’s Choice

19

12

$31

Pfieffer

 

 

Forfeiture

19

15

$51

Snowden

 

 

Forarainyday

20

3

$61

Walter

 

 

Epaulette

26

2

$41

Snowden

 

M-G3

Genteel

20

3

$5

Snowden

 

 

Walk With Attitude

22

4

$26

Weir

 

 

Royal Rada

25

8

$14

McDonald

 

 

Spirits Dance

18

6

$16

Moody

 

 

Lidari

29

2

$7

Moody

 

 

Laristan

49

11

$51

Hayes

 

 

Verdant

21

4

$21

Smerdon

 

 

That’s The One

27

2

$9

Alderson

 

 

Crucial

17

9

$15

A. Freedman

20/4

B-S7

Equissential

14

8

$26

N. Saunders

 

 

Anagold

14

9

$18

Guy

 

 

Londehero

18

4

$4.80

Dunn

 

 

Ginga Dude

28

5

$13

Boyd

 

 

Rothera

22

8

$14

B. Smith

 

 

Poste Restante

16

7

$15

Forster

 

 

The Conspirator

18

4

$17

Sears

 

 

Shamrock Slipper

14

7

$15

Birchley

 

 

Great Cheer

18

5

$81

Lockwood

 

 

Green Birdie

23

10

$31

Duryea

 

 

Muir

104

17

$101

Miller

 

 

Biggles

14

12

$21

Doyle

 

 

Latin News

24

7

$26

Dais

 

 

Excellantes

19

6

$12

Heathcote

 

 

Celtic Dancer

14

8

$31

Doyle

 

 

Meet George

40

5

$31

B. Smith

 

 

Mr Armstrong

25

11

$21

Thompson

 

 

Fire Up Fifi

16

6

$9.50

Heathcote

 

 

Punch On

30

12

$26

Balzen

 

 

Purfectress

15

10

$26

Doyle

 

S-H9

Queen Pin

19

6

$41

Payne

 

 

Scrutiny

17

5

$13

Snowden

 

 

Sunshine Royale

17

7

$5.50

Pfieffer

 

 

Eucumbene

31

7

$5

Walter

 

 

Potions

22

3

$17

Thompson

 

 

Ethiopia

23

17

$21

Carey

 

 

Cantonese

15

10

$15

Baker

 

 

Merlin Mustang

13

3

$17

Tudman

 

 

Euryale

14

11

$6.50

Snowden

 

 

Destiny’s Kiss

23

6

$17

Pride

 

 

Home On A Wing

22

9

$91

A. Cummings

 

 

Honourable Aussie

20

12

$71

Thompson

 

M-D5

Tiarazou

15

1

$2.15

Waterhouse

 

 

Dalton

13

4

$3.70

Hawkes

 

 

Lucky Penny

35

1

$4.40

Morgan

 

 

Fuddle Dee Duddle

18

8

$17

Hayes

 

 

Hazard

13

1

$11

Freedman

 

 

Seaside

21

5

$9.50

Snowden

 

 

Ava’s Delight

26

7

$26

Weir

 

 

Zabeelionaire

23

7

$51

Corstens

 

 

Medvedev

14

7

$9

Moody

 

 

Magniloquent

20

9

$26

Moody

27/4

B-G3

Vesper

43

13

$151

Jacobs

 

 

Raeburn

83

6

$101

B. Smith

 

 

Delago Pilli

13

11

$10

Pollock

 

 

Preacher Boy

15

12

$21

Milne

 

 

Delago Bolt

16

1

$14

Lyons

 

 

Baqaba

84

13

$101

Tregea

 

 

Rocker

45

8

$4.80

Schweida

 

 

Solebid

16

10

$15

Cousins

 

 

Buffering

24

1

$1.70

Heathcote

 

 

Startsmeup

15

5

$17

Meagher

 

 

Listen Son

22

4

$61

T. Gollan

 

 

Hidden Kisses

29

3

$12

Heathcote

 

 

Dream’n’ignite

16

9

$3.80

Forster

 

 

Wonderful Jester

22

13

$51

Thompson

 

 

Cuddlesome

15

6

$5

Ross

 

 

Miss Bradbury

16

10

$61

Schweida

 

S-G3

Floria

14

2

$31

McKee

 

 

Rangirangdoo

26

5

$26

Waller

 

 

Fiorente

24

3

$51

Waterhouse

 

 

Fat Al

22

12

$5.50

Waterhouse

 

 

Master Harry

57

11

$31

Quinton

 

 

Manawanui

31

5

$11

Lemon

 

 

Firebolt

44

8

$31

Waller

 

 

Bold Glance

25

10

$26

Hilton

 

 

Somepin Anypin

29

7

$8

Waterhouse

 

 

Stratana

21

14

$41

Sergeant

 

 

Renewed Vitality

25

13

$26

Thompson

 

M-D4

Awesome Bro

28

6

$3.30

Corstens

 

 

Cool God

22

9

$41

Ellerton

 

 

Motivado

28

5

$4.60

Hayes

 

 

De Fine Lago

96

5

$151

Vasil

 

 

Aribaa

31

12

$20

M. Kavanagh

 

 

Alpha Proxima

17

9

$20

Corstens

 

 

Bocuse

55

12

$71

Bourke

 

 

Royal Bender

24

10

$9

Weir

 

 

Halle Rocks

17

3

$5

Price

 

 

Serene Star

24

1

$10

Kent

 

To show what an exercise in futility it is backing horses resuming, during April 2013 another 131 horses resumed from a spell across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races – and of those 131 horses only 8 (6.10%) won, meaning that in the nine months to date of the current racing season, a total of 1317 horses have resumed across Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Saturday city races and of those 1317 horses only 117.5 have won, which means just 8.92% of horses resuming in a Saturday city race won during the months of August, September, October, November and December 2012 and January, February, March and April 2103 – so conversely an amazing 91.08% lost.

If a punter had $1 a win on all horses resuming, they would obviously outlay $1317 and they’d get back just $904.91, so they’d lose 31.30% of their stake. To set the record straight, two roughies won first up in December 2012 which helped the punter’s return figure out tremendously – and they were Jester’s Girl at 40/1 in Brisbane on 1/12/12 and Beltrois at 25/1 in Melbourne on 22/12/12 and another roughie won in January 2013, when $26 hope Frisco Lights won in Brisbane on 19/1/13. In February 2013 a series of roughies won resuming, namely Grey Countess ($17), Alzora ($18) and Mrs Onassis ($16).

Take a short priced overview of the group of horses resuming and if a punter had $1 a win on every horse that jumped at a starting price of $4 inclusive or less, there were 113 horses in that category, season-to-date, so a punter would obviously outlay $113 and the return would have been $102.61, so a punter would lose on this strategy also – and the financial loss would only be 9.20%. In the month of April 2013 of the 6 horses resuming that started $4 or under, only 3 (50.00%) won.

In the racing season-to-date, the shortest priced horse resuming from a spell that got beaten was the Joe Pride trained Sydney sprinter Rain Affair at $1.50. That horse ran fourth at Warwick Farm to stablemate Tiger Tees on 8/9/12.

In the racing season to date, the best training performance was by Robbie Griffiths who trained Beltrois to win first up at Flemington after 59 weeks off. The second best effort in the racing season to date was by Rick Hore-Lacy who produced Chase The Rainbow to win at Caulfield on 1/9/12 after 47 weeks off. The only other three trainers who have trained a Saturday city class winner that hadn’t started for at least 40 weeks – were Jason Coyle who trained Lady Be Great to win first up after 46 weeks at Warwick Farm on 1/12/12, Leon Corstens who trained Tokugawa to win at Moonee Valley on 4/8/12 after 45 weeks off and Liam Birchley who trained Emmalene to win after 40 weeks off at Eagle Farm on 30/3/13.

In Brisbane only 25 of 308 first-up horses have won in the season-to-date, which means 8.11% have won – and conversely 91.89% have been beaten.

In Sydney 45 of 434 horses resuming to the end of April 2013 have won, which means 10.36% have won – and conversely 89.64% have been beaten.

In Melbourne 45.5 horses (includes Puissance De Lune’s dead-heat half a win from March 2013) from the 524 that have resumed to the end of April 2013 have won, meaning an abysmal 8.68% have won, or conversely 91.32% have been beaten.

In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where the group resuming provided the winner was on 16/3/13 at Warwick Farm in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes where 10 horses resumed – Hay List, Temple Of Boom, Atomic Force, Decision Time, Tiger Tees, Second Effort, Howmuchdoyouloveme, Fire Thunderbolt, Snitzerland and Single Style – and Snitzerland won the race as the $3.30 favourite.

In the racing season-to-date the biggest number of starters resuming in a race where that group of horses didn’t provide the winner was at Flemington on 8/9/12 in the Cap D’Antibes Stakes when seven horses resumed – Affable, Molto Bene, Armed For Action, Sabie, Donna Cattiva, Dazzler, All About The Coin – but 25/1 chance Members Joy won the race easily.

So Justracing can reveal that backing horses resuming from a spell is an absolute and utter waste of money, as even in the season-to-date, 15 of the 117.5 winners (12.76%) started at odds-on, so 15 horses weren’t even betting propositions, because of the odds-on factor. As a matter of interest, Buffering ($1.70) was the only horse to resume at an odds-on quote during April 2013 and he was successful at Eagle Farm on 27/4/13.

Punters would be well advised not to bet early into fixed odds markets this weekend in Brisbane and Melbourne, as no one could possibly have a clue at present what the right track rating will be at either venue. What the Eagle Farm track rating could finish up for Oaks Day on Saturday is anybody’s guess following persistent showers yesterday afternoon and those showers will be around for the rest of the week according to the Weather Bureau. Melbourne is due to get quite a bit of rain both Friday and Saturday, which is certainly unusual in that capital city over the last 12 months, so be aware of that. And as I came past Ipswich thoroughbred track yesterday afternoon about 3pm it was copping a drenching. The city of Ipswich has received 12mm in the last 18 hours. Fortunately for Ipswich they don’t race this Friday though, or the horses would have ploughed the track up and the Ipswich Cup is only a few weeks away, so the club probably is welcoming the rain that is happening this week.

On www.brisbaneracing.com.au today there is the second montage of photos from Doomben last Saturday. On www.sydneyracing.com.au there’s the story of two arrests made in the NSW harness industry, along with thoroughbred trainer Greg Hickman turning $24,000 into $1,160,850 – then on www.melbourneracing.com.au Matt Nicholls continues to look at just how slow Australian racing is to embrace new technology.

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