CANTERBURY
WEDNESDAY 4 JULY
TRACK: SOFT 7 (5.51) RAIL: +3M
BEST BETS:
Race 5 No.1 BELLA VELLA
Race 6 No.8 MEDOVINA
Race 1
8 – 5 – 3 – 1
VITESSE debuted back in March and although things didn’t go to plan she didn’t look ready for race day. A little break and she looks a different horse and I thought her barrier trial was very good and from a soft draw she should enjoy a cosy run. Elusive Nature was good on debut at Kembla when racing back but today from gate one I expect her to settle closer and is capable of being in the spoils. Task And Purpose didn’t fire last start when ridden on-pace so if able to snag some cover expect her to bounce back while Ready To Prophet has done nothing wrong at the trials and the table is firing with three winners yesterday.
Race 2
9 – 1 – 15 – 10
I might be off the mark but I think NOBU will run well at big odds here coming off only the one official barrier trial when third. I really liked the way she travelled then was able to quicken and sometimes you just have to trust your eye with unraced youngsters. From a nice barrier and a nice strong speed I think he will be finding the line. Ljungberg resumed from an eight month break and was very good when narrowly beaten here behind Misteed. A repeat of that run will have him in the mix here. Plenty has gained a run and from gate one he must be kept safe. The raps have always been there and now with a three month break he may just come back and fulfil that potential. Nordicus will roll forward and give a big kick so don’t rule him out while Skyray is the blow out now that he is not favourite and from a wide gate they may just ride him cold which I think will help.
Race 3
6 – 5 – 4 – 7
Wow what a race and no disrespect but a city win today may be the only city wins for this field. I have ended up with LADY I AM who is sure to have derived benefit from her first up run at Newcastle where she was solid being beaten just over a length. Buffy came off a Bathurst win with a nice run here last start and a repeat would have her in the placings somewhere. Ready For Love has solid enough city form and could easily gain that important city win while Faith In hand and Cinq Dames aren’t without some hope.
Race 4
7 – 6 – 5 – 1
This looks the trickiest race of the day with any of the seven runners capable of winning and I think it will be a matter of who gets the best run and the favours will be hard to hold out. I have settled on KIGHTNING NIC who has turned in two cracking efforts of late and now that she steps to a distance that she relishes I think she can round them up and beat them. Smart As will lead and be hard to run down while the favourite Laussel is obviously hard to beat but she has to overcome coming back from 2000m on a heavy track to today’s 1550m in a race without much speed. Imanui can be forgiven for the first up run when he never took part while Hammond Lane only needs to repeat his last start second here behind subsequent Saturday winner Coonawarra and he will be hard to hold out.
Race 5
1 – 11 – 5 – 7
BELLA VELLA resumed following a three month break with a cracking third after covering ground and a repeat of that run will have her hard to beat here. Trainer Matthew Vella has given her three weeks to overcome that effort and with a solid enough tempo expected I am hoping she can run over the top. Unwise looks to have come back stronger this time around with a narrow defeat followed by a win while Empress Matilda from barrier two must be considered a ,major player as she only just finished behind my top pick Bella Vella last start when drawn wide.
Race 6
8 – 1 – 11 – 5
With the scratching of Paret it leaves me with the best bet of the day MEDOVINA as my top pick. She resumed this preparation with a good win at Kembla before a very good second at Warwick Farm and then backed that up with a good run behind subsequent Saturday winner High Mist on the Kensington track. She should stalk what looks a good speed and be hard to hold out. Pianissimo is low flying and looks a threat from a good barrier while El Dorado Mine only needs to repeat his last start win to figure here.
Race 7
7 – 8 – 3 – 9
Cormac can improve on a better surface today as he has struggled on the heavy tracks at his last couple of runs plus getting down in the weights is sure to aid his winning chances. Walk The Streets has been poor at her past two runs but could improve with the quick four day back up. Balmain Boy is a query at the distance but will get a soft run from the gate while Underground will likely find the lead and may well give plenty of cheek. Seababe from barrier one and only 52kg on her back is capable of playing a role.
Quaddie:
1st leg: FIELD
2nd leg: 1 – 5 – 6 – 7 – 11
3rd leg: 8
4th leg: 3 – 7 – 8 – 9 – 10
Cost $35 = 20%